The Memphis Tigers were the team du jour in the AAC before losing to Navy last week. Now, the Houston Cougars are the last hope the conference has of crashing the party in the College Football Playoff. It's going to take a really impressive showing on Saturday night to impress the voters, but the opportunity is still there to continue moving up the ladder.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Memphis Tigers +6 Houston Cougars -6
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cougars probably would've been favored in this game regardless of what happened last week to Memphis, but now, there's a lot more momentum behind them.
Houston is set at -6 on Saturday night in the biggest game of the history of TDECU Stadium. The total has opened up relatively high thanks to the fact that both of these offenses are capable of putting up points in a hurry.
KEY MISMATCH
The Houston defense has quietly been a lot better than you'd probably realize. Yes, this unit was torched for 30 last week by Cincinnati, but the Bearcats can play some ball on the offensive side. What's not a mistake is that the Cougs held their last three foes, albeit Vandy, UCF and Tulane, to a total of just 17 points.
Memphis' ground game is crucial to its success. However, the team is averaging just 4.4 yards per carry this season. Paxton Lynch really needs to be able to keep this unit balanced, something that wasn't happening last week against Navy. Houston is averaging 3.1 sacks per game, costing teams 23.7 yards per game. The end result is just 3.0 yards per carry allowed. The defense is conceding just 99.4 rushing yards per game.
KEY STAT
2 – The total number of touchdowns which Lynch has thrown in his last two games combined. It's starting to become clearer that the Tigers will only go as Lynch takes them. They've failed to cover their last two games with Lynch throwing just one touchdown in each game. He did throw for over 300 yards in both games, but here in college football, it's all about getting points, not just getting yards. Memphis needs to succeed in both areas to cover let alone have any chance of winning this game.
BETTING ANGLE
The Cougars are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four games played in this series, including last year when they were able to go on the road and pull off the upset of the Tigers as 7.5-point underdogs. This is a different Memphis team now than the one which really wasn't all that great in previous years, but history is certainly on their side.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Group of Five teams which start to make some noise in the Top 25 which lose their first game tend to really struggle the next week. It happened with Temple against SMU, and it could happen on Tuesday with Toledo against Central Michigan, too.
We think the Tigers are set for a big time letdown in this game. They just aren't good enough defensively to slow down the well-balanced Houston offense, one which is going to end up having a pair of 1,000-yard rushers when the NCAAF season is said and done with.
As long as Greg Ward Jr. keeps good tabs on the football, the Cougs should be in really good shape against the Tigers' defense. At that point, it's really just a matter of whether or not Houston can stop Lynch and the Tigers often enough to win. We think that it can.
Houston 41, Memphis 30
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker's new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting every. Click here, and start wagering today! Kick off for the game between the Memphis Tigers and the Houston Cougars is scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2015 at 7:00 p.m. ET at TDECU Stadium. The duel can be seen live on ESPN2.
