First place in the Big Ten East is on the line when Ohio State officially starts its season hosting Michigan State. The undefeated Buckeyes look to extend their winning streak to 24 games and solidify their position in the College Football Playoff ranking with a victory. With their CFP hopes dashed by Nebraska two weeks ago, a win by Sparty would go a long way toward starting the healing process.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ohio State Buckeyes -13
Michigan State Spartans +13
Over/Under 51
ODDS ANALYSIS
Rivalry games are always unpredictable and a line that was wagered to Ohio State -13.5 is risky. Michigan State was a dog just once this season and got the outright win over Michigan. Sparty covered in three of the past four games but overall has been a terrible bet, going 3-7 ATS overall. Ohio State is 1-5 ATS at home laying double figures in every game.
KEY MISMATCH
Ohio State should expect to see Connor Cook at quarterback, even after he injured his throwing shoulder in last week’s win over Maryland. Cook temporarily left the game in the first half when he got hurt. He returned to action but completed only six of 20 attempts in the first half. He was replaced by Tyler O’Connor in the second half. Regardless of who lines up behind center, the Buckeyes will need to be a constant presence in Michigan State’s backfield. The Spartans have relied heavily on their passing attack this season, which ranks 37th nationally with 253.9 yards per game. They’re also excellent at protecting their quarterback, as they’ve given up an average of 1.3 sacks per game. But Joey Bosa, Tyquan Lews, Adolphus Washington and Sam Hubbard form the 11th-best pass-rushing unit in the country, averaging three sacks per game. OSU will challenge a solid Spartans offensive line and they’ll have the benefit of homefield advantage to help their cause.
KEY STAT
32.9 – Michigan State’s points per game average. The Spartans will try to dent Ohio State’s second-ranked Big Ten scoring defense that allows just 13.8 points per game.
BETTING ANGLE
Ohio State has won all 10 games this season and its current winning streak is at 23 games. But the Buckeyes have looked unimpressive at times against unranked teams, while repeating the mantra that playing their best is most important at the end of the season. Ohio State faces its toughest – and some would say first – challenge of the season against Michigan State. Besides the inside track to winning the East Division, there are bragging rights at stake. Although Ohio State has won 30 straight regular season Big Ten games since Urban Meyer became coach in the 2012 season, the Spartans handed him his only conference loss – a 34-24 defeat in the 2013 conference title game that ended Ohio State’s 23-game winning streak. The games against MSU and Michigan have long been targeted as Ohio State’s most important of the season. Now the first one is here.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The injury to Cook plays right into the hands of the Ohio State pass defense, which ranks eighth nationally. MSU will have to run the ball effectively and that’s not going to be easy against the Buckeyes, who have stiffened over their last three games, yielding an average of 52.3 rushing yards per game. Sparty will open hot, they’re too good and the stage is of the grand variety. But the Buckeyes seem to rise to the occasion, and playing at home is a huge boost. MSU will have no answer for Ezekiel Elliott and the OSU passing game will open up allowing J.T. Barrett to have his way with the sub-par Spartans secondary. Michigan State will keep the college football game close by forcing a few Buckeyes’ turnovers, but in the end Ohio State is just too much. The Buckeyes are laying a lot of points, even if it is at home, and they will have a difficult time covering.
Ohio State 34, Michigan State 24
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