This Egg Bowl battle for Mississippi is a good one with teams ranked in top-25.
Both teams are in position for a good Bowl berth so a win in this game will go a long way for both teams.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ole Miss Rebels -1
Mississippi State Bulldogs +1
Over/Under 60
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Rebels are ranked No. 18, four spots above the Bulldogs and thus were dubbed the marginal favorites by the oddsmakers early in the week, but the odds have since dropped to even between these two intrastate rivals.
The total has seen even more movement as bettors look for a high scoring affair with it jumping four points up to 64.
KEY MISMATCH
Both the Rebels and the Bulldogs do most of their damage in the air and neither defense is overly well equipped to shut down the other’s offense.
Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott basically single-handedly won the game for the Bulldogs last week, completing 76 percent of his passes for a staggering 508 yards. He also recorded seven touchdowns, five passing and two rushing.
With almost countless targets and as many as 10 different receivers having scored a touchdown this season, Prescott and the Mississippi State passing attack is truly elite.
On defense, the Rebels do give up plenty of passing yards, but they are tied for the conference lead with 15 interceptions. The Bulldogs turned the ball over three times last week, but Prescott himself has thrown just three interceptions all year.
On the flip side, the Ole Miss offense could also be in for a big day, just like Prescott.
The Rebels have scored more per game than anyone else in the SEC with 40.7 PPG thanks to racking up 526.6 yards per game.
As a unit, Ole Miss’s offense is much more balanced than Mississippi State’s with Jaylen Walton and quarterback Chad Kelly forming a nice tandem in the backfield.
As a dual threat quarterback, Kelly provides a similar dimension as Prescott, though he’s got 3,504 yards and 25 touchdowns, but is a bit more inclined to the turnover having thrown 12 interceptions.
That said, defensively, the Bulldogs still don’t stack up against this offense. After all, they gave up seven passing touchdowns to Brandon Allen last week.
KEY STAT
.415 – This is the third down conversion rate for the Bulldogs. They rank just above the Rebels who sit at a percentage just over 40 percent.
While the gap is minimal, it gets bigger when considering how well each team does defensively on third down. Mississippi State has the edge, ranked No. 32 allowing teams to convert on 34.5 percent of their third down opportunities, compared to a much more pedestrian mark by the Rebels.
BETTING ANGLE
Arkansas has taken down a number of the SEC’s ranked teams this NCAAF season and Mississippi State was almost the latest victim last week, but squeezed by with a narrow 51-50 win thanks to a blocked field goal.
While the game was close, the win could be a huge momentum boost for the Bulldogs, but at the very least is a positive sign for an offense that scored a mere 6-points against the Crimson Tide the week prior.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Mississippi and Mississippi State have been back and forth in their recent matchups with the home team winning four straight games and nine of the last 10.
Given that, the Bulldogs would seem to have the edge based on history. Of course, they also have Prescott who’s at the top of his game right now. The defensive issues against Arkansas are concerning, but despite giving up so many touchdowns to Allen, there’s reason for hope. The Bulldogs—prior to that—had allowed just six passing touchdowns all year.
Look for a close game that goes down to the last play, but bank on Prescott and the Bulldogs pulling it out at home.
Mississippi State 38, Ole Miss 35
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