No college football game this week will carry as much weight as the showdown between Oklahoma and Baylor in Waco with Big 12 supremacy and a shot at the College Football Playoff on the line. With no conference championship game, both teams need a win to keep pace with unbeaten and freshly minted No. 5 Oklahoma State, while a loss is trouble for either side.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Baylor Bears -5
Oklahoma Sooners +5
Over/Under 78
ODDS
After a less than impressive outcome last week behind their backup freshman quarterback, Baylor saw the opening line sliced in half. Oklahoma has proven to be the best at beating up the bottom half of the conference, going 4-0 SU and ATS and cashing the over each time in its last four. We’ll see how they fare against better conference competition.
KEY MISMATCH
Oklahoma and quarterback Baker Mayfield have showed they aren’t afraid of a shootout. The Sooners are tied for second in the country with 46 points per game and Mayfield’s completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 2,812 yards and 28 touchdowns, most recently torching Iowa State for his fifth 300-yard game of the season. Baylor’s secondary is led by Big 12 interception leader Xavien Howard and is second in the conference in pass defense allowing just 223.8 yards per game. Watch for the Sooners to unleash Samaje Perine early. He’s totaled 185 yards and three scores in the past two games and lit up Texas Tech for 201 yards before that. It’s a bad sign for Baylor that Kansas State ran for 258 yards and 5.4 yards per carry, keeping the game closer than expected for the duration. Wildcats’ quarterback Joe Hubener ran for 153 yards and two touchdowns. Oklahoma will be able to spot what Kansas State did right and the Sooners have the players to exploit Baylor’s weakness.
KEY STAT
+11 – Baylor’s turnover margin. The Bears have the second-most takeaways in the Big 12 with 21. Oklahoma is plus-3 in differential and has turned the ball over 14 times.
BETTING ANGLE
Oklahoma might be one of few teams capable of beating Baylor in a shootout. The Sooners’ defense leads the Big 12 in most categories, including rush defense, pass defense, total defense and scoring defense. More impressive is that OU has defeated its last four opponents by a combined 232-50, scoring at least 50 points in every outing. Baylor is undefeated and right in the running for a playoff berth, but had its share of doubters even before starting quarterback Seth Russell was lost for the year with a neck injury. It appears freshman Jarrett Stidham could be a solid replacement. He threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns in his first start last week, but the Kansas State defense is one thing, the Oklahoma defense another. The Bears embarrassed Oklahoma in Norman last season 48-14. Perhaps the Sooners have revenge on their mind also.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The gauntlet of November games for the Big 12’s top teams claimed its first victim when TCU was handed its first defeat and all but eliminated from the playoff discussion last week. Baylor and OU will try and avoid a similar fate. OU has been the hottest team in college football the past month, blowing the doors off the competition scoring an average of 58 points. The blemish of losing to Texas prior to the run still lingers and the Sooners are doing a nice job of trying to win over the committee. The Bears were afterthoughts in the Big 12 after losing Russell, but Stidham was solid in his first start and this isn’t his first rodeo. He’s appeared in every game, but has played late in mostly lopsided games until last week. And he wasn’t to blame for the narrow victory over K-State. Stidham wants the spotlight, coach Art Briles has confidence in him, and the Bears are jumping on his back on their way to another win.
Baylor 38, Oklahoma 35
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