The Big 12 takes center stage this weekend when Oklahoma and Oklahoma State battle it out in the annual Bedlam game with more than just bragging rights in the Sooner State at stake. Oklahoma clinches the conference title and perhaps a spot in the College Football Playoff with a win while the Cowboys need some help.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oklahoma State Cowboys +7
Oklahoma Sooners -7
Over/Under 68
ODDS ANALYSIS
The line was wagered down a half-point to Oklahoma -6.5, which is much smaller than in previous meetings. OU has been kind to its backers going 8-3 ATS overall and 4-0 ATS in true road games this season. While the series has traditionally been high scoring, both teams have strong defenses and the total fell to 66.5. That number could fall further depending on the status of OU quarterback Baker Mayfield.
KEY MISMATCH
There are few complete teams in college football this season, but Oklahoma has a strong case that they are one of them. The Sooners run the ball well, they play defense as well as anybody when faced with wide-open attacks and they have a fairly strong kicking game. More than anything, they may just have the best quarterback in the country in Mayfield. His value was apparent as he maneuvered through TCU’s defense last week on his way to a pair of first-half touchdowns and a 23-7 lead. Mayfield has a way of escaping danger most of the time but couldn’t survive a vicious helmet-to-helmet hit in the second quarter. He was pulled for backup Trevor Knight after experiencing concussion-like symptoms and the well-oiled machine sputtered in the second half. During OU’s six-game winning streak, Mayfield completed 68.7 percent of his passes for 3,209 yards with 33 touchdowns and only five picks. In the second half of the TCU game, the Sooners were forced to punt on six of nine drives, missed a field goal on another and had one end with a Knight interception.
KEY STAT
20.5 – Oklahoma’s points per game allowed. The Sooners lead the Big 12 in scoring defense and face the Cowboys offense that averages 42.8 points per game.
BETTING ANGLE
There may not be a hotter team in college football right now than Oklahoma. The Sooners are coming off two wins against teams ranked inside the top 20, knocking off conference foes Baylor and TCU last week, the pair widely regarded as being the favorites to claim the Big 12 crown. OU owns the rivalry with kid brother Oklahoma State, leading the all-time series 84-18, but the Cowboys have been a thorn in the Sooners side lately with the team’s splitting the past four meetings. Oklahoma is 4-0 both SU and ATS on the road this year and clinches the Big 12 title with a victory. OU owns the advantage on both side of the ball and while quarterback Mayfield is questionable after suffering a concussion last week, backup Knight isn’t exactly a newbie. Also, OSU upset the Sooners last season, winning outright as a three-touchdown dog in Norman. So perhaps the Sooners have revenge in mind also.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Sooners are close to being where they thought they would be back in September – playing meaningful games at the backend of their schedule with a chance to win the Big 12. And with a win over their Bedlam rivals, it’s all theirs. Getting a victory over OSU, though, might be more difficult if Mayfield is unable to play. He suffered a concussion last week and is questionable to play, but he’s progressed nicely and barring any setbacks before game time should suit up. No offense to Knight, but the Sooners are much better on offense with Mayfield in the lineup. Either way they are a more talented team than the surprising Cowboys and with so much at stake, I don’t see them missing out on this opportunity. OSU will battle, it’s been their distinguishing character trait all NCAAF season, and while the Boys still hold out hope for a Big 12 title, it seems unlikely that they get past the Sooners.
Oklahoma 41, Oklahoma State 31
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