The Red River Shootout is a staple on the second Saturday of October and if there’s one thing we’ve learned, it’s that the Oklahoma Sooners are vulnerable in this game if they are highly ranked. The Texas Longhorns knocked them off in two of the last three seasons despite being unranked and were the only team to defeat Oklahoma in the regular season in 2015.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oklahoma Sooners -12
Texas Longhorns +12
ODDS ANALYSIS
Oklahoma dominated this series early in Bob Stoops’ coaching career, but over the last decade it has been dead even with each team winning five of the meetings. Texas has covered the last three games against Oklahoma as a double-digit underdog and has won two of those three meetings outright.
WHO TO WATCH
Baker Mayfield was the Big 12’s Offensive Player of the Year in 2015 and could have an even better season in 2016. Mayfield was fantastic throughout the season in spite of an offensive line that constantly let pass rushers through. He was sacked 41 times on the year, but still completed over 68 percent of his passes for 3700 yards with 36 touchdowns and seven interceptions. In last year’s showdown against Texas, Mayfield was sacked a season-high six times but were starting three freshmen on the offensive line. He should put up better numbers with a more experienced front this season.
The Sooners also return one of the best running back tandems in the nation in Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, but these two stalwarts had awful performances against the Longhorns last year. Perine and Mixon combined to rush for just 60 yards in last year’s Red River Shootout in a season where they averaged 150 yards per game together.
In a conference with quarterbacks that can light up the scoreboard, Texas has been woefully behind the pack the last few seasons. Neither Tyrone Swoopes nor Jerrod Heard were good last season and that’s why true freshman Shane Buechele is the likely candidate to be the starter for Texas when this one rolls around. Buechele was one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the country and has the accuracy that both Swoopes and Heard have lacked.
Texas’ defense was uncharacteristically porous last season. The Longhorns gave up over 30 PPG and 450 YPG and were poor at both stopping the run and defending the pass. The unit does have eight starters returning from last season though, including budding star Malik Jefferson at linebacker. Jefferson might be the best defensive player in the Big 12 this season and will be a key to stopping Oklahoma.
LIVE BETTING
This game used to be a defensive slugfest but in recent years has joined other conference games in being a high-scoring affair. Four of the last six meetings between these two have gone over the total and if Buechele is as good as his promise indicates, this one could reach the over as well.
QUICK PICK
This game could determine how much longer Charlie Strong has at Austin. Strong earned some leeway by knocking off the Sooners last year, but has posted two losing seasons and desperately needs a solid year to stay in charge. He has a lot of young talent on this team and it will be quickly put to the test with games against Notre Dame, California, and Oklahoma State before the match-up against Oklahoma.
Texas should be much improved this season, but Oklahoma is going to be too much for the Longhorns to handle. The Sooners are the overwhelming favorites to win the Big 12 and won’t underestimate Texas like they did last season. Look for OU to have a much better offensive performance than it did in 2015.
College Football Odds: Oklahoma 38, Texas 24
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