Oregon and Stanford have combined to win the past six Pac-12 championships and it seems every season the matchup between the two determines the conference title. The Cardinal can clinch the South Division with a win over the Ducks, while Oregon still has a chance if it can pull the road upset.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Stanford Cardinal -8.5
Oregon Ducks +8.5
Over/Under 69
ODDS
Oregon is a better team now than it was five weeks ago and it’s difficult to say the same about Stanford. The line was wagered to Stanford -9.5, making it tough to pick against the points. In the past four meetings between these two the favorite is just 1-3 SU and ATS.
KEY MISMATCH
Stanford leads the FBS in time of possession, holding the ball an average of 35 minutes, 16 seconds per outing. That comes largely on the strength of a running attack that ranks 15th in the nation with 227.4 yards per game. Running back Christian McCaffrey is the workhorse back and has emerged as a fringe Heisman candidate with his impressive numbers. McCaffrey is coming off a 23-carrry, 147-yard rushing performance last week against Colorado and has the ninth-most rushing yards in the nation with 1,207. His value to the team comes as a multi-threat player. McCaffrey’s 241.6 all-purpose yards per game average leads the country by more than 25 yards and puts him on pace to break the NCAA all-purpose record of 3,250 yards set by Barry Sanders in 1988. Coincidentally, McCaffrey shares the backfield with Sanders’ son at Stanford. He’s also a threat on punt and kickoff returns and averages 11.6 yards per reception. Oregon’s defense should feel better about last week’s effort, holding Cal to 28 points and 432 yards. That’s a good showing considering the Ducks give up 489.7 total yards per game and 170.4 on the ground.
KEY STAT
37.2 – Oregon’s points per game allowed. Stanford has not scored fewer than 30 points in a game since its season-opener and averages 37.1 points per game.
BETTING ANGLE
Oregon struggled through the early part of this season, as many teams do after losing a Heisman winning quarterback, and a home loss to Washington State a month ago dropped the Ducks to just 3-3. But since then, Oregon is 3-0 both straight up and against the spread, including a 44-28 victory over Cal last week. Oregon racked up a school record 777 yards of offense on its way to covering as a 4-point home favorite. Two weeks ago the Ducks won at Arizona State in overtime and they won at Washington 26-20 before that, taking both outright as three-point road dogs. Along with their cover at Michigan State, the Ducks are 3-0 ATS when getting points. Oregon still has a shot at the Pac-12 North, but must beat Stanford to keep any hope alive. While Stanford has won two of the past three meetings, the Ducks outscored the Cardinal 79-59 in those games.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
With Vernon Adams healthy, the Oregon offense is a different group. The deep ball is an option and the entire offense has opened up. The Ducks amassed a school record 777 yards in last week’s win over Cal, and that’s saying something considering the offenses the Ducks have had in recent years. The return of Adams and receiver Darren Carrington has coincided with a three-game winning streak that suddenly has Duck Nation thinking happy thoughts. While it’s a longshot for them to win the division, beating Stanford is always nice. And with Adams under center, the Ducks have a chance. But Stanford appears laser-focused after escaping the Palouse two weeks ago with a win and running the table could set the Cardinal up for a shot at the College Football Playoff. Don’t look for them to stumble against Oregon, though the game sets up much closer than the spread. Oregon with the points is too tempting to pass up.
Stanford 38, Oregon 35
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