Oklahoma State can now be considered one of the big boys in the Big 12 and the Cowboys can send shock waves through the college football landscape with a win over TCU. The Frogs visit Stillwater for the third time in four seasons and again have a bit of a chip on their shoulder in regards to the CFP selection committee. TCU was ranked eighth in the first poll and will use the lack of respect as motivation.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
TCU -5
Oklahoma State +5
Over/Under 77
ODDS ANALYSIS
The opening line matches the smallest this season for the Horned Frogs. TCU was 5-point chalk at Texas Tech on Sept. 26 and failed to cover in a 55-52 win. TCU is 1-3 ATS on the road this season but has gone 17-6 ATS overall in its last 23 games. The line was wagered down a half point while the total of 77 has value with two teams that love to put up points.
KEY MISMATCH
Everybody in college football knows TCU can score points in a hurry. The Frogs are second nationally in scoring and total offense and haven’t scored fewer than 40 points in a game since the season opener. Five of those games produced 50 or more points and there was a 70-point game against Stephen F. Austin tossed in as well. Trevone Boykin is the most dynamic player in college football and would be a lock for the Heisman if not for some guy in Louisiana named Fournette. But the Frogs are more of a complete team now that they are starting to resemble a Gary Patterson defense again. After so many injuries to key players and using 16 first-time starters, TCU has allowed only one touchdown in the past seven quarters. Starters Davion Pierson and Mike Tuaua are back on the right side of the defensive line after each missed three games earlier. Pierson is a force in the middle of the line. He has 21.5 career tackles for loss and his intense style of play ignites his teammates. TCU is the only team with at least three conference games shutting out opponents at least three quarters.
KEY STAT
+8 – Oklahoma State’s turnover margin. The Cowboys have a Big 12-leading 19 takeaways and will likely need to win the turnover battle for an upset chance. TCU has the second-fewest giveaways in the conference and is plus-4 in differential.
BETTING ANGLE
When the first College Football Playoff selection committee poll was released, the Horned Frogs were ranked lower than what they thought at eighth. And that means there is no margin of error for TCU down the stretch with a lot of very important football to be played in the Big 12 this month. The November schedule is loaded with games against each of the other three top teams in the conference, but if the Frogs lose one game against Oklahoma State, Oklahoma or Baylor, they will likely be on the outside of the playoffs again. And that seems to be the message the selection committee sent to TCU, but plenty can happen to the teams ahead of TCU, which is in a better position to take care of Baylor itself. Coach Gary Patterson publicly declared that it’s up to seniors Boykin and receiver Josh Doctson to get the Frogs through November without a setback. Both teams are much better on offense than on defense, so an intense shootout is expected.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
This is basically an elimination game for both team’s CFP hopes and both have plenty to prove for the perceived lack of respect the Big 12 receives from the selection committee. TCU has gotten all the hype this NCAAF season, and deservedly so with Heisman hopeful Boykin and Doctson putting up video game numbers. The Horned Frogs aren’t so sturdy on the defensive side, but with several key players returning and the emergence of several youngsters who’ve gained valuable experience, the unit has gotten better. The Cowboys have flown under the radar most of the year and could really muck up the Big 12 with an upset win. OSU has thrived in a two-quarterback system manned by Mason Rudolph and J.W. Walsh, who each add a different element and keep defenses on their toes. TCU again feels snubbed after its eighth place standing in the first CFP poll and will use that as motivation to beat a scrappy group of Cowboys in a close game.
TCU 48, Oklahoma State 44
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