The Baylor Bears might've lost last week to TCU, but the argument could be made that they're headed to the Sugar Bowl anyway if they can beat the Texas Longhorns on Saturday. Texas might be just 4-7, but a win in this game will very likely send Charlie Strong's team to a bowl game with not enough teams qualifying this year.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas Longhorns +20
Baylor Bears -20
Over/Under 68.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Baylor hasn't quite looked the same without Seth Russell at quarterback. Sure, Jarrett Stidham is the future and should keep the Bears in contention for years to come, but he wasn't ready for the end of the Big XII gauntlet. Chris Johnson, the man who replaced Stidham when he broke his ankle, hasn't fared any better.
That said, this game isn't exactly mammoth in terms of stature. Texas has been a wreck this year after starting off the season ranked in the Top 25, and it is a deserving huge underdog at +20.5.
The total is relatively high at 68.5.
KEY MISMATCH
We're going to give Johnson a pass knowing that last week's game against TCU was played in horrible weather, but we still don't see him managing to put anything together against this Texas defense.
Say what you want about the Longhorns, but they're averaging 3.3 sacks per game and are holding opposing quarterbacks to a modest 7.7 yards per pass attempt. That 140.7 quarterback rating against isn't good whatsoever, but if Baylor has to throw the ball a ton in this game, we can't see Johnson doing any better than that.
KEY STAT
5.7 – The number of yards per carry Baylor is averaging this year. Okay, so if the Bears can't throw it, at least they can run it, right? Let's not forget that Shock Linwood, Johnny Jefferson and Terence Williams are averaging 6.9, 6.0 and 6.8 yards per carry, and the three have combined for over 2,300 rushing yards this year.
BETTING ANGLE
Baylor has covered the last five games in this series and seven of the last eight. This has been a long time coming for the Bears, who were routinely 20+ point underdogs against the Longhorns until this most recent surge.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
It's tough to see Baylor winning this game by a huge margin. Texas' offense has shown a pulse thanks to a big time ground game. Chris Warren, who didn't even have 100 total rushing yards for the season coming into last week, took off for 276 yards and four scores against Texas Tech.
The Longhorns are going to have to make this game shorter with fewer plays, and even if D'Onta Foreman misses out on this game again with a wrist injury, we have to think that Warren is going to have a second good game in a row.
Baylor will get its points and do enough to win, simply due to the fact that the Longhorns have found ways to lose all NCAAF season long. That said, asking for a massive margin of victory out of the hosts is just too much with a third-string quarterback under center.
Baylor 31, Texas 27
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