The Red Raiders snapped a three game losing streak their last time on the gridiron, beating Kansas State 59-44, but will have their hands full on Thursday against a Longhorns team that beat them 34-13 last year.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas Tech Red Raiders +1
Texas Longhorns -1
ODDS ANALYSIS
Texas Tech is 9-4-1 ATS over its last 14 games and 4-1 ATS in its last five against losing teams.
The Longhorns with have the home field edge on Thursday and Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.
Head-to-head, the under has paid out in five of the last six meetings, but the Longhorns have owned the Red Raiders, winning each of the last five meetings both SU and ATS.
KEY MISMATCH
Offensively, the Red Raiders have been dominant, ranking No. 2 in scoring offense with 46.5 PPG.
Texas Tech has been able to thrive offensively thanks to a very balanced attack that averages 391.3 passing yards per game and 196.8 rushing yards per game.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes II has thrown at least three touchdowns in three straight games and five of his last seven. He’s also thrown for 3,911 yards to go along with 31 touchdowns but has, however, thrown 13 interceptions.
On the ground, Mahomes is rushing for 4.1 yards per carry and has nine rushing touchdowns while running back DeAndre Washington has carried the ball 195 times for 1,282 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Texas’s defense will have a hard time keeping up with the Red Raiders’ potent offensive attack.
Overall, the Longhorns are averaging 29.9 PPG and 428.7 yards per game. The defense is a bit better against the pass than against the run, but Mahomes and company should be able to move the ball with ease.
KEY STAT
.535 – This is the third down conversion percentage for the Red Raiders, the best conversion percentage in college football.
While the team’s overall win-loss record is mediocre, their offense has thrived in large part because of their ability to move the chains in third down situations.
By comparison, the Longhorns are ranked No. 84 on third down attempts, converting 37.2% of the time.
BETTING ANGLE
Offensive prowess aside, the Red Raiders have plenty of deficiencies on defense, ranking near the bottom in the nation allowing 42.4 PPG.
Texas will look to take advantage of Texas Tech’s porous defense, but the Longhorns offense as a whole doesn’t possess much firepower. It’s averaged just 24.9 PPG, but the rushing attack has been strong in gaining 213.9 yards per game.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Look for a high scoring game as Texas Tech’s offense continues to light it up while the defense continues to be a major thorn in its side.
With Texas at home and having so much historic success against the Red Raiders, the Longhorns should keep this game close, but the Red Raiders’ offense is way too strong and should find a way to lead the visitors to victory.
Texas Tech 39, Texas 32
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