The Bowling Green Falcons already know they're headed to the MAC Championship Game, but they feel like there's still an outside shot if it all goes south in the AAC to claim a spot in a New Year's Six bowl game. They've got a heck of a challenge this Tuesday against the Toledo Rockets in what should be one of the better games on the docket early in the week.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Toledo Rockets +7.5
Bowling Green Falcons -7.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Rockets haven't been underdogs in a game since upsetting Arkansas way back in the beginning of the season, but they're pups in this one.
Bowling Green, a team which hasn't been a dog in a MAC contest this year and was even favored on the road at Purdue back in September, is set at -7.5 in its final home game of the season.
KEY MISMATCH
Last week, the Rockets really had no answer for Cooper Rush and the Central Michigan offense, and it was only some timely turnovers which got them out of that game. Rush threw for 354 yards and two TDs, and he really was able to do whatever he wanted in the passing game.
Enter: Matt Johnson.
Johnson had a modest game last week against Western Michigan, throwing for just 269 yards and three TDs, but he's averaging 395 passing yards and nearly four touchdowns per game this year. It's going to be really tough for the Rockets to slow him down, knowing that the Falcons have a ton of options and can spread out even the best of defenses when given the chance.
KEY STAT
61 – The number of points per game Bowling Green is averaging this year in home games in conference play. The Falcons have put up at least 500 yards in all three games at home in the MAC, and Johnson has thrown for 14 touchdowns against just one pick in those games. What's worse for opponents? BGSU has averaged running just under 80 plays per game in that span as well.
BETTING ANGLE
The under is 7-2 in Toledo's nine games this season, including consecutive unders in conference play since losing to Northern Illinois. The Rockets' offense hasn't looked great in their last two games, failing to get to 30 in either occasion. We guarantee if they don't get to 30 in this one, they're in a heck of a lot of trouble.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Bowling Green, for our money, always was the best team in the MAC this year, and we think it's going to show it on Tuesday night in front of a national audience.
Johnson is just too good in the passing game for Toledo's No. 99 ranked pass defense to slow down, and defense should be able to do the rest.
As we discussed last week, the Rockets seem to have this syndrome of falling apart after losing their first game of the year. We see it all the time with Group of Five teams, particularly in the MAC, who start off the year full of sound and fury, beat a couple NCAAF teams that perhaps they shouldn't, and then lose once and falter the rest of the way.
We consider Toledo an automatic fade, particularly in this spot against Bowling Green.
Bowling Green 55, Toledo 28
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The duel between the Toledo Rockets and the Bowling Green Falcons will take place at Doyt Perry Stadium on Tuesday, November 17, 2015. This 6:00 p.m. ET kickoff can be seen live on ESPN2.
