While it hasn’t been the kind of season either team expected, the matchup between Southern California rivals UCLA and USC still has plenty of meaning.
The two will square off in a winner take all battle to determine the Pac-12 South champion and Stanford’s opponent in the conference title game.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
USC Trojans -3
UCLA Bruins +3
Over/Under 63
ODDS ANALYSIS
UCLA has won the past three and is 6-3 ATS in the past nine meeting with their rival. The game is basically a toss-up with USC getting the standard field goal spread to open. The line was wagered to USC -4. The Bruins have been a good bet going 8-3 ATS overall and 4-1 ATS on the road this season.
KEY MISMATCH
USC’s defense was no match for Vernon Adams Jr. and the Ducks last week, surrendering 407 yards through the air to the Oregon quarterback and six touchdowns, the most ever for an opposing quarterback. The Trojans’ front couldn’t contain Adams and the secondary looked confused, allowing Oregon receivers to roam the backfield with six different pass-catchers hauling in a scoring toss. The loss of key defenders Cameron Smith and Lamar Dawson hurt, but the elusiveness of Adams and the quickness of Oregon’s receiving group was more of an issue. The good news for SC is that the Bruins don’t possess nearly the speed Oregon has, and the game will be played in a more friendly environment. But UCLA has a potent passing attack led by Josh Rosen, who has thrown for 3,123 yards and 19 touchdowns, and has a school-record 218 consecutive passes without an interception.
KEY STAT
+10 – USC’s turnover margin. The Trojans lead the Pac-12 and are tied for 12th nationally. UCLA is plus-4 in turnover differential with the third-fewest giveaways in the conference.
BETTING ANGLE
USC’s path remains the same despite the beatdown administered by the Oregon Ducks last week. UCLA’s win in Salt Lake City set up a winner-take-all showdown between the SoCal rivals. The Trojans team that developed resiliency and toughness while winning four straight games vanished and every USC weakness was exposed and exploited by Oregon. It’s one thing to get run by Oregon, which has made a habit of doing that to opponents at Autzen Stadium. But it’s another to look entirely unprepared and inept as the Trojans did last week in their 48-28 loss. Their goals are still in front of them, but while nothing really changed, everything about the Trojans looked different. The only question now is can they pick up the pieces in time to beat UCLA?
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Bruins’ coach Jim Mora has never lost a rivalry NCAAF game to USC and his team is feeling good about its chances after bouncing back from what appeared to be a crushing loss to Washington State two weeks ago. UCLA knocked Utah out of contention and set up the all-or-nothing confrontation for the Pac-12 South with a win last week. USC took a 180 and looked lost getting hammered by Oregon last week. Despite the loss the Trojans are still in the running for their first division title, and that’s something that has them looking forward to this matchup. Expect a better defensive showing from the Trojans, who won’t have to face a quarterback as elusive as Oregon’s Adams and defend receivers as shifty and fast as the Ducks’ group. UCLA has holes of its own on defense but was able to shut down Utah, who played without Devontae Booker. Cody Kessler has never beaten UCLA and the Trojans have the experience at the position that matters most. In a game that should be tight, the experienced quarterback gets the nod.
USC 37, UCLA 31
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