The Pac-12 lost its chance at getting a team in the College Football Playoff with Utah losing last week. But the South Division race is still up for grabs. UCLA was also handed a loss but both teams are still clinging to hopes of a division title. The Bruins control their fate and can earn a berth in the conference title game with wins in its last two. After being the class of the league for much of the season, the Utes need some help.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Utah Utes -2
UCLA Bruins +2
Over/Under 59.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
The total could take a big hit with Utah’s Devontae Booker a question mark to play after a leg injury last week. The Bruins have been a good road team the last two seasons going 10-1 SU but just 6-5 ATS.
KEY MISMATCH
Don’t mistake UCLA’s Josh Rosen for a dual-threat quarterback. But his ability to run the football was on display last week. The Bruins’ freshman sensation has done a lot in his first year, throwing for 2,903 yard and 18 touchdowns, and the team hasn’t been afraid to lean on him, as his 380 pass attempts rank 12th in the country. But until last Saturday, few viewed him as a dangerous running threat. Rosen scampered 37 yards for the go-ahead score last week and amassed 70 rushing yards on five carries. The display showed off Rosen’s footwork, one overlooked aspect of his game. In his last two high school seasons, he totaled nearly 800 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. “I think people just assume, because he’s such a great pocket passer, that he can’t run,” said offensive lineman Caleb Benenoch. Rosen’s presence in the pocket is that of a poised veteran. He’s shown the ability elude defenders, extending a play on what would have turned into a sack for many young quarterbacks. Utah’s pursuit defense was exploited by Arizona’s Anu Solomon last week and could face similar pitfalls if assignments aren’t handled against UCLA.
KEY STAT
46.41 – UCLA’s third down conversion percentage. The Bruins are second in the Pac-12 and 18th nationally extending drives. Utah allows a third down conversion 38.2 percent of the time to rank fifth in the conference.
BETTING ANGLE
Despite an up and down season that’s included three losses in their last six games, UCLA’s path remains clear. The Bruins can win the Pac-12 South and advance to the conference championship with wins in their final two games. The path, however, isn’t easy. The Bruins face No. 18 Utah followed by their regular season finale against USC in the Coliseum. ESPN’s Football Power Index metric gives UCLA just a five percent chance of winning the division. But the Bruins feel comfortable playing on the road, where they’ll need to win both games. UCLA has won 11 of 12 road or neutral site games with the lone loss coming to then-No. 15 Stanford on Oct. 15. The Bruins are 3-1 ATS on the road this season but could have a difficult time against Utah after going 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings with the Utes.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Utah’s chances of winning decrease significantly if stud running back Devontae Booker doesn’t play. Booker wasn’t bringing the same tenacity in last week’s game after he injured his leg in the first half. Though he continued to play and rushed for better than 100 yards, he lost a fumble and had coach Kyle Whittingham contemplating taking him out. Juco transfer Joe Williams has already been tabbed the heir apparent to Booker but is mostly an unknown. He won’t be Saturday with plenty of snaps on his plate after Whittingham called Booker a “question mark” for the game. The Bruins have no injury concerns on offense and they’re over the loss of three defensive stars from early in the season. Rosen is no longer a freshman with nearly a full NCAAF season under his belt and his progress has been just what coach Jim Mora expected. Even if Booker plays, he won’t be at full strength and the Utes offense suffers. The Bruins are comfortable playing on the road and they ride their young quarterback to set up a winner-take-all showdown with USC.
UCLA 27, Utah 24
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