The Trojans have trounced the Buffaloes over the last four seasons since these two teams began meeting in conference play.
USC is once again the heavy favorite, though this time the spread sits lower than it has for any of those previous four meetings.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Colorado Buffaloes +16
USC Trojans -16
ODDS ANALYSIS
It’s been a bad year for Colorado, SU or ATS, home or away. The Buffaloes lost on Saturday to Stanford 42-10, handing them the loss SU and ATS. They were 14.5-point underdogs heading into that game and actually beat the spread in back-to-back weeks prior to that.
Even with those wins, Colorado’s still just 2-5-1 ATS over its last eight games. The team’s also dropped their last four home games. Of course, USC isn’t exactly the powerhouse it’s used to be. The Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with a losing record, but the team’s also only 7-15 ATS in their last 22 on the road.
WHEN THE USC TROJANS HAVE THE BALL
It’s defense, not offense, that’s been the Trojans’ Achilles Heel during tough matchups this season.
As a team, USC is amongst the top-20 in points per game, putting 37.4 on the board each outing behind a mediocre rushing attack and a stout passing game.
Senior quarterback Cody Kessler hasn’t allowed an interception in three straight games, though he did throw all five on the year in the three games prior to that, including two each in back-to-back games.
Keep an eye on freshman running back Ronald Jones who had a huge game against Arizona on November 7. He carried the ball 19 times for 177 yards and one touchdown. He averaged 9.3 yards per game.
If Jones can run like he did last week, the Trojans offense could be in for an explosion. If he’s running well early, look to jump on the over even if the Buffaloes are able to keep the Trojans off the board early.
Colorado’s defense is well below average. The Buffaloes are ranked No. 92 in total yards. They’re also well below average against the rush.
WHEN THE COLORADO BUFFALOES HAVE THE BALL
Given the Trojans’ struggles against the pass, Colorado quarterback Sefo Liufau should have a big game.
That said, he’s only passed for nine touchdowns all season and though he’s got 2,307 yards and a 61.6% completion percentage, his 9:6 touchdown to interception ratio is lacking.
While the Buffaloes can move the ball down the field in the air, they’re scoring is very reliant on the ground game. Liufau himself has five rushing touchdowns and is second on the team with 106 carries, though his 2.4 yards per carry average leaves plenty to be desired.
The ground game could have trouble against USC. Southern California ranks No. 38 nationally allowing 142.3 rushing yards per game and has only given up 11 rushing touchdowns through nine games.
BETTING TRENDS AND MATCHUPS
The under has paid out in USC’s last two games and two of the last three for Colorado. The under is also 8-2 in the Trojans last 10 conference games. In the Trojans’ last seven road games, the under has paid out six times.
If you’re playing the total, keep an eye on both college football team’s ability to move the ball on the ground early. If both are able to produce on the ground, the over could be a good pick. Likewise, if all the action is coming in the ground, be willing to take the under, particularly if either team is able to get a couple early scores to inflate the total.
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