Just over a month ago USC and Oregon were two of the more disappointing teams in college football. But things have changed and the two hottest teams in the Pac-12 Conference meet with the division title hopes of one coming to an end with a loss. USC and Oregon are both riding four-game winning streaks and the Trojans have the inside track to win the South Division title.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oregon Ducks -3.5
USC Trojans +3.5
Over/Under 70
ODDS ANALYSIS
Getting quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. back has helped Oregon in the standings and at the betting window. The Ducks are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four but they are just 1-4 ATS at home. The total spiked to 71.5 and recent history between these two says that is well within reach.
KEY MISMATCH
Oregon is a better offensive club with Adams Jr. and he is validating himself as the best quarterback in the Pac-12 after last week’s 38-36 win over Stanford. Adams completed 10 of 12 pass attempts for 205 yards and two touchdowns, but more importantly manned an offense that appears to be humming like one of the best in the country. The Ducks are averaging 532.6 yards per game and have a variety of options that will give the SC defense headaches. Royce Freeman has rushed for better than 100 yards in six straight games and eight total this season, leading the conference with 139.2 yards per game. USC has one of the more stingy defenses in the conference, allowing just 22.7 points per game. However, the injury bug could hurt them. Linebackers Cameron Smith and Lamar Dawson are both out after getting hurt last week. Smith led the team in tackles and had three picks in the Trojans’ win over Utah. “He was a difference maker in several games,” coach Clay Helton said of his freshman.
KEY STAT
+10 – USC’s Pac-12 leading turnover margin. The Trojans also have a conference-low nine giveaways. Oregon is plus-5 in turnover differential.
BETTING ANGLE
The Trojans have rallied around interim coach Clay Helton since he succeeded Steve Sarkisian at midseason. It’s unclear whether Helton will be given a chance to take the job outright after the season, but Helton is 4-1 since taking over with his only loss at Notre Dame, currently ranked No. 5 in the AP poll. A strong finish to the year, a berth in the Pac-12 title game and a trip to the Rose Bowl would likely give Helton more leverage. He also has the backing of his players, who have started using the #Helton2016 hashtag on social media. Some say maybe, just maybe, the next great USC coach is already coaching at USC. The outside hire route didn’t work, so maybe the school should try an in-house candidate.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Ducks have their swagger back thanks to the mended finger of Adams and their hopes of winning the North were extended with an upset of Stanford last week. While Oregon has won four straight, the defense, or lack of, continues to be a weakness. The Ducks have been susceptible in the passing game all college football season, yielding 317.7 yards per game through the air and nearly 500 a game overall. The Trojans have an NFL quarterback in Cody Kessler and play making wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster and Adoree’ Jackson, so expect plenty of shots downfield. Oregon will use its speed on offense with Freeman, Charles Nelson, Adams and Darren Carrington to try and outrun the Trojans, much like the Ducks did to Stanford last week. The middle of USC’s defense will be missing linebackers Smith and Dawson leaving plenty of pasture for Oregon’s thoroughbreds in the middle of the field. More than Su’a Cravens is able to cover by himself. Points are out there and both teams will scoop them up, giving the over plenty of value. Oregon is playing efficient offensive football and that will be enough to overcome their shortcomings on defense.
Oregon 45, USC 41
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