Saturday presents us with an interesting Pac-12 matchup.
UCLA needs to win out to capture the top spot in the South Division, but Washington State provides a very big hurdle. Wazzou’s pass-happy offense has led to a surprisingly strong season.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Washington State Cougars +7.5
UCLA Bruins -7.5
Over/Under 66.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Since the spread opened, bettors have been backing the Bruins and if you were able to get on board before the spread jumped to -10, congratulations.
While the spread has also seen some movement, it’s been a bit more steady, dropping just a single point from 66.5 to 65.5.
UCLA hit a snag to open October with back-to-back losses against Stanford and Arizona State, but has rebounded for three straight wins. Washington State, meanwhile, has dropped one of its last five—to Stanford—but have covered the spread in six straight.
WHEN THE WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS HAVE THE BALL
The Cougars have been a very formidable road team and a trip down south could play in the favor of a prolific passing attack that should only be more efficient in nice weather.
The Cougars have the best passing attack in the nation, but are averaging just 82.3 rushing yards per game as they air it out almost exclusively. That’s not a great matchup against a Bruins defense that’s giving up 198 rushing yards per game, but has been pretty solid against the pass.
Keep an eye on whether the Cougars try and run a bit more given the defense. Don’t look for them to stray from their strength, but a few extra run plays could help them keep a poor rush defense on their toes.
The Cougars’ only loss in their last five games came with quarterback Luke Falk completing just 57.4% of his passes and only two touchdowns along with a pair of picks.
In the other four games, Falk has completing at least 65.5% of his passes and had at least five touchdown passes each game, throwing for 400 or more yards.
The accuracy of Falk and his completion percentage early will be the key factor to watch if you’re looking to make some extra money on this game and take advantage of BookMaker’s live betting platform.
Another thing to watch is the chances Washington State gets. To be successful Falk needs a number of attempts, but UCLA could keep the ball and limit Wazzou’s time of possession.
WHEN THE UCLA BRUINS HAVE THE BALL
While the Cougars focus on the passing game, UCLA does most of its damage on the ground.
Look for the Bruins to set up the run game early to allow quarterback Josh Rosen to open things up with a number of play-action plays.
While Washington State’s passing game has kept them relevant, their defensive line has allowed the opposition to stay close to their high powered offense. The Cougars are giving up 206.1 rushing yards per game, ranking No. 109 in the nation. The Bruins will be able to take advantage of those struggles with a number of running backs averaging over six yards per carry.
The team’s lead back is Paul Perkins who has 961 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s found the end zone in seven of the team’s last eight games. In addition to Perkins, Soso Jamabo and Nate Starts are each averaging 6.5-yards per carry and allow UCLA to keep a fresh set of legs in the back field while providing a different look.
UCLA’s success against Washington State will hinge on its running attack and there’s no reason to expect a poor Washington State defense to suddenly find an answer.
For UCLA, the offense is all about pounding it between the tackles and tiring out the defense. That could lead to some late points. Don’t be scared off by the Bruins if the offense doesn’t produce early.
BETTING TRENDS AND MATCHUPS
UCLA has beaten the Cougars in five straight games, but Washington State has covered the spread in each of these team’s last three meetings. With the spread ever growing, a fourth straight game is well within reach.
Washington State is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings against UCLA and 5-1 ATS in its last six down in the Rose Bowl. The Cougars have also beaten the spread in four straight road games and six straight Pac-12 matchups.
For those looking to play on the total, the Cougars’ powerhouse offense tends to lead to the over cashing in, but the UCLA offense is more prone to pound the ball and its defense has led to the under paying out more often than not, particularly at home where the under is 8-2-1 in the Bruins’ last 11 home games.
With that in mind, keep close tabs on Washington State’s attempts. They tend to make quick work on offense, but Falk needs plenty of attempts to drive up the score.
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BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the Washington State Cougars and UCLA Bruins will take place Saturday, November 14, 2015, at 10:45 p.m. ET at the Rose Bowl. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
