Dana Holgorsen has gone just 36-28 in his first five years on the job with the West Virginia Mountaineers. Now, he's officially on the hot seat. What's the definition of success in 2016? Certainly, the Mountaineers need to make a bowl game, and we'd bet they have to win at least eight, if not nine games. Just based on the way this roster looks though, that might end up being a bit of a stretch.
West Virginia Mountaineers Regular Season Win Total Odds at BookMaker.eu
West Virginia Over 8 Wins ( +150 )
West Virginia Under 8 Wins ( -190 )
The Mountaineers do have nine returning starters on offense, including quarterback, Skyler Howard. Howard didn't have the best stats in the world last year, as he threw for 3,145 yards and 26 TDs. If he cuts down on his 14 picks though, he could turn into one of the better quarterbacks in this conference. Howard loves to stretch the field, and his top target from last season, Shelton Gibson is back after he averaged 24.0 yards per reception with nine TDs in 2015.
The ground game will certainly take a step back without Wendell Smallwood, but Rushel Shell is a good power back and should be a constant in this offense. The question is whether the tailbacks can produce a home run hitter. Howard can certainly break runs in the rushing game as demonstrated by his 502 yards and six TDs in 2015, but he's going to need some help.
The defense is the real worry for the Mountaineers. They're going to have to win a lot of games by 45-42 margins for sure. This secondary now has four brand new starters in it, and there are only a total of four men back from a unit which was reasonable in allowing 24.6 points per game a campaign ago.
2016 West Virginia Mountaineers Football Schedule
September 3 – vs. Missouri
September 10 – vs. Youngstown State
September 24 – vs. BYU (in Landover)
October 1 – vs. Kansas State
October 15 – at Texas Tech
October 22 – vs. TCU
October 29 – at Oklahoma State
November 5 – vs. Kansas
November 12 – at Texas
November 19 – vs. Oklahoma
November 26 – at Iowa State
December 3 – vs. Baylor
This schedule is really tough. Sure, the game against Youngstown State is a punt, but a home game against Missouri and a neutral site affair against BYU aren't easy games to stick on the non-conference schedule. Furthermore, they're not massive games either, so they won't prepare the Mountaineers for the big time games of the Big XII.
The conference schedule isn't all that bad. The Mountaineers get TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma all at home, though they do have to travel to both Texas and Oklahoma State.
QUICK PICK
There's going to be a lot of pressure on Howard this year. If he can become an All-Big XII caliber quarterback, the Mountaineers will be fine. However, if he can't cut down on his turnovers and forces the ball into too many bad spots, the offense will get stopped often enough to put a big onus on what is shaping up to be a bad defense.
Still, West Virginia is a tough team to handicap. Those home games with TCU, Oklahoma and Baylor could all end up being losses, and we have a tough time believing that this club can get beyond eight wins with at least two or three defeats at home. One trip against Texas Tech, Iowa State or Texas on the road, and this is a team which is staring 7-5 in the face, and that won't be good enough for either Holgorsen or WVU's bettors.
College Football Odds: West Virginia Mountaineers Under 8 Wins
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