It’s a year later, but here we are with the same matchup to determine the college football champion as the Alabama Crimson Tide and Clemson Tigers get set to collide in the College Football Championship Game a week away in Tampa. Last year, the No. 2 team topped the No. 1 seed as Nick Saban’s Tide outlasted Clemson thanks to a 24-point fourth quarter.
This National Championship contest to wrap up the college football season will go down Monday, January 9, 2017, at 8 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium on ESPN.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Clemson +6
Alabama -6
Over/Under 54
Odds Analysis
The Tide opened as six point favorites and that’s since grown to seven points as bettors reminisce on last year’s matchup between these two programs.
While the spread has grown since it opened, the total has dropped thanks in part to the dominance of both of these teams’ defenses. After opening at 54, the current total sits at 51.5 at the time of this writing.
Alabama is undefeated on the season—obviously—and even though they’ve been heavy favorites game in and game out, this Crimson Tide team has managed to cover the spread in 10 of its 14 games to this point in the season. That’s a rather impressive feat.
Clemson is just 7-7 ATS, but one of those was a very impressive victory over Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. What makes the win so remarkable was that this Tigers team beat the Buckeyes 31-0 despite being the underdogs. It was the first time since 1993 that Ohio State was shutout and the first time an Urban Meyer led team was blanked. That says a lot about the Clemson defense.
Matchup to Watch
The Tide put on a defensive clinic in the Peach Bowl against a very strong Washington offense. Alabama gave up seven points in the first quarter and then slammed the door shut. In short, we saw clearly why this Crimson Tide squad was ranked first in the nation in yards allowed and points allowed, giving up a meager 11.4 PPG overall.
Clemson put on a show of its down on defense against Ohio State with the shutout and is ranked No. 7 in PPG allowed with 17.1 and No. 8 in yards allowed with a balanced pass rush and run defense.
The key matchup will be seeing both of these offensive lines against the opposing first seven. Alabama’s offense matches up much better against Clemson’s defensive front. Clemson’s offense in general is better than Alabama’s—arguably—thanks to Deshaun Watson who threw for 405 yards and four scores last year against this same ‘Bama team. He also rushed for 73 yards to help carry an otherwise lacking running game.
Even so, it’s hard to imagine any offense can have an answer for Jonathan Allen. Look for Allen and company to put tons of pressure on Watson who’ll get much less help than he’s used to from his offensive line.
Key Stat
There’s a lot that’s been said about Watson and his deep core of receivers and it’s warranted. This is a truly elite passing attack, but Watson is a dual-thread QB and he, along with the other running options, have also played a key role in Clemson’s dominance on third downs. They’re converting 51.2-percent of their third down plays this season, ranking No. 5 in the nation.
Of course, in a national championship bout, you can expect both teams to rank near the top in most statistical categories and while Alabama is very good on third downs, too, they’re conversion percentage is noticeably lower at 46.1-percent.
Clemson will absolutely need to win the battles on third down against the Tide’s impeccable defense. Both defenses are neck and neck in third down conversion percentage allowed with the Tigers at .291 and Tide at .300.
Free ATS Pick
Alabama showed game in and game out that they’re in a class all by themselves. They destroyed Florida to grab the SEC title and then absolutely stuffed the Huskies after their lone scoring drive.
It’s easy to jump on the Tide’s bandwagon. They really are that good. Still, Dabo Swinney will have his team ready. They shocked the Buckeyes from the beginning and their defense looked a bit like the one Alabama showed all year long.
If that defense holds up against the Tide, they could get the upset, but this is an Alabama team that has a quarterback with tons of talent that plays like a seasoned pro despite being a true freshman. It also has Scarbrough. That’s hard for any defense to contend with.
In all, look for a hard fought game. Clemson will cause issues upfront for the Alabama line. Look for a close, lower scoring affair. Nevertheless, the Tide defense is just that much better and will get a key stop late to secure yet another championship for Saban.
College Football Odds: Alabama 24, Clemson 20
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