It’s that time of the year once again. The leaves are starting to turn and it’s time for college football to fill our Saturdays for the next few months. There are a number of interesting games and storylines for the first full week of the season. Some of these games have seen rather large line movements since they have been up for three months as circumstances and prognostications have shifted odds and perceptions. Let’s look at some of these.
College Football Week 1 Odds at BookMaker.eu
North Carolina State vs. South Carolina
Opening: South Carolina -4
Current: North Carolina State -6
This line has swung heavily as people continue to jump on the North Carolina State bandwagon. The Wolfpack have been a trendy pick to make some noise this season with some, like ESPN’s Cole Cubelic, even calling for NC State to make the playoff.
North Carolina State has one of the best defensive lines in the country. The Wolfpack have three or four players on their line that might get drafted, with Bradley Chubb leading the way. Chubb had 21 tackles for loss and 10 sacks in 2016 and will be one of the top defensive linemen in the country once again. At 6’4 and 275 pounds, he is the smallest player on a beefy unit.
Many analysts are also calling for a big improvement from quarterback Ryan Finley. Although NC State doesn’t have much talent at the skill positions, he was able to make it work with this group last year despite joining the team in May and should be even better this season.
Conversely, some of the hype has worn off South Carolina. The Gamecocks may have a good, young quarterback, but there is little buzz about Will Muschamp’s second season in Columbia.
Marshall vs. Miami (Ohio)
Opening: Miami (Ohio) -5
Current: Marshall -1
Marshall had a nightmare season in 2016. The Thundering Herd had posted three straight seasons with at least 10 wins and while a dip might have been expected with the number of contributors they lost from last season, no one expected 3-9.
It was a perfect storm of factors. Injuries? Sure. Defensive woes? Yeah. Offensive struggles? Yep. Things piled up one on top of the other until the team just crumbled.
People are starting to view last season as an aberration and many are expecting Marshall to bounce back rather quickly. The Thundering Herd added quite a few talented speedsters in the offseason and should have more playmakers on the field.
Additionally, Miami was a bit fortunate to end last season the way it did. The Redhawks are a little overhyped after winning six straight games after an 0-6 start to the season last year.
Alabama vs. Florida State
Opening: Alabama -5.5
Current: Alabama -7
This is easily the most hyped game of the first week of the season. It’s rare to have such a good non-conference matchup and rarer still to see two teams ranked in the top three meet this early.
Florida State has a moderate amount of hype after beating Michigan in the Orange Bowl last season and many consider them the favorite to win the ACC. Their best player from last season, safety Derwin James, barely played in 2016 and he is a difference maker.
Although the Seminoles may be better than they were in 2016, the line has moved against them. That’s because Alabama’s record in season openers is impeccable. The Crimson Tide have played good non-conference opponents in each of the past five seasons, and beat every single one of them by at least double-digits, including last year’s beatdown of USC.
No team preps like a Nick Saban squad and you can be sure that he will be ready for Florida State and quarterback Deondre Francois. Florida State doesn’t have the playmakers at receiver to beat this team and even though the Seminoles have a talented new freshman running back in Cam Akers, you don’t beat Bama by running the ball.
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