It's "Separation Saturday" across college football, as there are some awesome games which will prove to be separators across a ton of conferences. Teams will be eliminated from the College Football Playoff once and for all, and line movement suggests who some of those teams might be who should be sweating going into the weekend.
Note: All current college football odds listed as of Thursday morning. Check up-to-the-minute odds at BookMaker.eu.
Temple vs. SMU, Friday 8:00 p.m. ET
Opening College Football Odds: Over/Under 58.5
Current College Football Odds: Over/Under 51
A 7.5-point drop in a total is big news no matter what the game is, but the fact that it's a game involving Temple has to be a bit scary for the Owls. Just one glance at this line of Temple -14 against what is perceived to be a bad team is spooky as it is, but the fact that the perception is there that it is going to be scoring fewer points is a real red flag. We've warned all week that SMU could win this game, and though the line movement isn't seeing any changes in the spread, the total is a signal to us that the Owls are on upset alert.
Vanderbilt vs. Florida, Saturday 12:00 p.m. ET
Opening College Football Odds: Florida -19
Current College Football Odds: Florida -21
It's not really that the Gators have moved up to -21 that is so shocking in this game. It's that the Commodores have watched their team point total get slashed due to a dropping total as well. The total has fallen to 37 in this one. At the start of the week, it was at 39.5. That means the oddsmakers originally tipped Vandy to score between 10 and 10.5 points. Now, that number is all the way down to just eight. It's not a drastic move, but when you're talking about numbers this small, it's notable for sure.
Arizona vs. USC, Saturday 10:30 p.m. ET
Opening College Football Odds: USC -18.5
Current College Football Odds: USC -20.5
Once again, we've got a game where it isn't just the line movement on the side that matters. The movement on the total is equally interesting when parlayed with the spread movement. The total has come up from 64 to 66.5 as well. That means that USC's projected team total at the start of the week was 41.5. Now, the number is up to 43.5. For an offense which wasn't scored more than 42 in a game since beating up on Idaho and Arkansas State to start the year, that's a big ask. But then you remember how bad Arizona's beat up defense has been. The Wildcats just allowed 49 to Washington and 45 to Washington State in consecutive weeks, and they're surrendering 40.5 points per game in conference play – after holding woeful Oregon State to just seven.
LSU vs. Alabama, Saturday 8:00 p.m. ET
Opening College Football Odds: Over/Under 54
Current College Football Odds: Over/Under 48
We would be remiss if we didn't mention the huge line movement on the under in the biggest game of the year in college football to date. Of course, history suggests that points are going to be hard to come by in this one. Since 2008, the final scores in this game have totaled 48, 39, 45, 15, 21, 38, 55 and 33 points, and three of those games were aided with extra points in overtime. It's understandable for bettors to want to back the under in Tuscaloosa. However, it's worth remembering that this might be the best edition of the LSU offense we've seen in quite some time. The Tigers are averaging darn near 40 points per game by themselves, and they're playing against an Alabama defense which was mauled by Ole Miss just a month ago on this very field. We understand the line move, but we wouldn't be surprised if total bettors were disappointed by a higher scoring game in the end.
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