Alabama treated its SEC championship win like a business trip. Michigan State has been knocking on the door of really, really big things for years, and now it’s finally inside. The Spartans surprised a lot of people and only a one-point loss to Nebraska prevented them from entering the playoffs undefeated. They also had a few bounces go their way to help with their lofty record and went 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Alabama Crimson Tide -10
Michigan State Spartans +10
Over/Under 49
ODDS ANALYSIS
The line was wagered to Alabama -9.5, still the largest spread of any CFP game in two years. The Tide was a 7.5-point favorite against Ohio State in last season’s national semifinal and lost 43-35. Twice Michigan State played as an underdog this season and both times the Spartans won outright, winning at Michigan and Ohio State. Sparty went 5-1-1 ATS over its last seven games after failing to cover in its first six. The total tumbled to 46.5.
KEY MISMATCH
Alabama’s Derrick Henry is a difference maker. It also helps that he runs behind the best offensive line in the country. Henry topped 100 yards nine times – and 200 on four occasions – while rushing for an SEC record 1,986 yards to go with 23 touchdowns on his way to winning the Heisman Trophy. The Spartans know they’ll be seeing a lot of Henry with the football as he carried it a combined 90 times over the Tide’s last two games. Michigan State’s run defense is strong, allowing only Air Force to eclipse 200 yards against them. But Alabama is relentless with a group up front that was named the best in college football. The Tide will lean on Henry and its beefy O-line to wear down Sparty’s front seven, who don’t have the size to compete for a full 60 minutes. Michigan State’s offense needs to sustain drives to give the D a blow, and that won’t happen.
KEY STAT
14.4 – Alabama’s points per game allowed. The Tide ranked third in the nation in scoring defense and face Michigan State’s 50th-ranked scoring offense.
BETTING ANGLE
The Spartans have the edge in grit. Their three biggest games of the year – at Michigan, at Ohio State and against Iowa in the Big Ten championship game – were all won in the final seconds, and they have played in high stakes games under coach Mark Dantonio. MSU has won seven of the last eight games in matchups of top 10 teams. The Tide has reveled in games against Big Ten opponents, going 5-1 SU and ATS in its past six. However, one of those tilts came in last season’s playoff when Alabama opened as a 9-point favorite over Ohio State and was blitzed by the underdog. So overcoming the odds isn’t out of the realm of possibility. But Bama is favored for a reason, and while the Spartans will present a challenge, the Tide will reach the national title game in what should be a tight contest.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Too much Henry will be the Spartans downfall in this one. Alabama will stick to its bread and butter and eventually wear down a pretty good defense. MSU got a break when Ohio State didn’t feed Ezekiel Elliot and the Spartans were able to win in the Horseshoe. Don’t expect the Tide to make that mistake. While Henry may get stopped, the Tide will continue to rely on the Heisman winner and the massive offensive line to chip away at MSU’s front. The Spartans will find it equally difficult to move the football against Bama’s stingy defense. Quarterback Connor Cook had time to heal his injured shoulder and the Spartans will try to move the ball through the air because they won’t be able to run. Cook will be pressured by a relentless front and the short passing game will work, but there won’t be many yards after the catch because the Tide doesn’t miss tackles. Alabama will wear down MSU in the late stages, but the Spartans are here because they are a gritty team.
Alabama 27, Michigan State 20
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