Last season, the Alabama Crimson Tide played in the second national semifinal as a huge favorite over a Big Ten team and were upset by an Ohio State side which went on to win the National Championship. Could deja vu be in order on New Year's Eve with the Michigan State Spartans?
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michigan State Spartans +10
Alabama Crimson Tide -10
Over/Under 49
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Crimson Tide opened up at -10 as soon as the matchup was set from the College Football Playoff, a number which really feels like it's a bit high. In fact though, the Tide are arguably the sharper of the two sides. MSU is garnering over 70 percent of the betting action with a week and a half to go until kickoff of the Cotton Bowl, yet this line really isn't moving.
What is moving is the total. There is a ton of confidence in these two defenses, which is why the total has dipped from the opening number of 49 down to 47.
WHEN THE MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS HAVE THE BALL
Last year, Ezekiel Elliott made a real name for himself by blasting through the Alabama defensive line when it knew he was coming right at them.
This though, is a really tough challenge for freshman tailback LJ Scott. Scott did have the rush of the year for Sparty when he won the Big Ten Championship Game, but we aren't sure he, Gerald Holmes and Madre London are ready for this challenge.
For the Spartans to succeed in live betting and have a shot in this game, Connor Cook is going to have to play like the NFL prospect he and many others think he is. He didn't make a ton of throws against Iowa, but he did make enough to ultimately lead the team down the field and win the game.
If the Spartans have the ball in a tight game in the fourth quarter, we have all sorts of confidence they can get the job done with their history of clutch drives this year.
WHEN THE ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE HAVE THE BALL
Michigan State held Elliott to 33 yards on 12 carries and the potent Iowa ground game to 52 yards on 24 carries. We know this team can stop the run. But can it stop the Heisman Trophy winner?
Derrick Henry was a monster this year, rushing for 1,986 yards with a total of 23 touchdowns between rushing and receiver. Henry carried the ball a total of 90 times in his last two games for 470 yards to lock up the Heisman, and both Lane Kiffin and Nick Saban know that he's the only guy on this offense who can succeed.
However, if the Tide get behind, things could get interesting. Alabama has only had to play from behind once this year, that coming against Ole Miss in a game which was ultimately lost. The Crimson Tide aren't suited to play from behind by double digits, and as live bettors, we would have no trouble fading them if they were put into a situation where Jacob Coker had to throw the football to win the NCAAF game. Sure, he's improved dramatically and hasn't lost a game as a starter this year, but this offense isn't routinely scoring over 30 points in every game either with him.
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