The oddsmakers made a huge mistake last year. They favored the Alabama Crimson Tide by double digits against the Ohio State Buckeyes. Ultimately, the SEC champs went on to get beaten in the Sugar Bowl, thus ending a disappointing campaign in which they were the odds on favorites to win it all. They're the odds on choices yet again this year, and the script looks largely the same. This time though, instead of facing Bucks, they've got to contend with the Michigan State Spartans.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Alabama Crimson Tide -10
Michigan State Spartans +10
Over/Under 49
Alabama's season really turned on its head on the day it was beaten. The Tide benched Jake Coker that day at home against Ole Miss in favor of Connor Bateman, but they let Coker come off the bench when it was clear that Bateman wasn't the answer.
Coker only went 21-of-45 in relief for 201 yards, but he threw three touchdowns and earned the respect of his teammates and the Alabama faithful. Since that point, Coker has never looked back, ultimately going on to throw for 16 TDs in his last 10 games against just seven picks.
Of course, we question whether Coker is really going to be able to win a game of this magnitude. The SEC definitely provides some big time challenges, but when you go back and look at it, Coker hasn't been asked to do a heck of a lot in conference play, particularly on the road or at neutral sites.
Here though, we just can't imagine that Michigan State is going to let the Tide run Derrick Henry into the ground against it. The Spartans have the No. 7 ranked rush defense in America, and they aren't going to be afraid to put eight men in the box to try to slow down the Heisman Trophy winner. Ezekiel Elliott was a complete non-factor this year against the Spartans, and Iowa's vaunted ground game went nowhere in the Big Ten Championship Game all night long.
That said, the Alabama offense is a lot different right now than what it had at the end of the year. Kenyon Drake will be available in full capacity for the first time in months, and Calvin Ridley has really come on strong at the tail end of the campaign as that next great Alabama wide receiver.
Where the Tide really got into trouble last year was on defense. The Buckeyes are able to spread them out and use both Elliott and Cardale Jones to run through gaping holes. It's almost as if Alabama had never seen the read option out of the shotgun before.
Michigan State is going to try to ugly this game up a bit, and that should play right into the hands of the Crimson Tide. They don't have an offense capable of putting up 40 points in a game like this one, but it isn't out of the question to get into the low-30s if everything is rolling properly.
Let's not forget that the Alabama defense is back to looking like the Alabama defense. We're not all that worried about Kirby Smart leaving for Georgia. There's more than enough motivation on this defense after getting embarrassed by the Buckeyes last year to keep things going. This unit hasn't allowed more than 16 points in a game since October 17, and only Texas A&M and Ole Miss managed to put more than 16 against this unit all year long.
The Crimson Tide are really only going to be burned here by the deep ball. Their corners are physical enough to match wits with the short passing game of the Spartans, and the front seven should be able to contain the trio of running backs that will be thrown their way. As long as the offense holds its own, the Tide should roll their way to the College Football Playoff National Championship.
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