The Michigan State Spartans are massive underdogs in the Cotton Bowl, the second of the two national semifinal games this year. That said, Sparty has been defying the odds all season long, pulling off the improbable upset of Ohio State just weeks after the miracle touchdown on the fumbled punt on the final play of the game at Michigan. We've seen upset after upset before this time of year, and the Alabama Crimson Tide should surely be on notice.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Alabama Crimson Tide -10
Michigan State Spartans +10
Over/Under 49
The theme of Michigan State seems to be the bigger the game is, the more it steps up. The Spartans really had their backs against the wall so many times this year, particularly in the fourth quarters of games, but they've pulled off all but one of the great escapes. Clearly, keeping this game close in the fourth quarter is going to be the key.
The Big Ten Championship Game was a thing of beauty for Sparty. They were faced with a 13-9 deficit needing a touchdown with less than 10 minutes to play. Some teams would've panicked. Not MSU. Instead, the Spartans marched 82 yards and ate 9:04 off the clock, running 22 plays in the process to take the 16-13 lead which would ultimately be the final tally.
That's not the first time we've seen such dramatics, though. In th fourth quarter against Ohio State, the Spartans called 13 straight running plays with Connor Cook out of the lineup, ultimately covering 65 yards in 6:30 to pick up the game-tying score. From there, Michigan State used the final 4:07 of regulation to setup the game-winning field goal as time expired.
We've seen Gerald Holmes be the back du jour, and we've seen both Madre London and freshman L.J. Scott have some big carries as well. None of these three backs are what you would call explosive, but they've all got a lot of promise and rarely seem to end up getting stopped in the backfield behind a great offensive line.
Cook might be an NFL-caliber quarterback, but this game is going to come down to running the football. No one is simply going to be able to stand in the pocket and throw the ball 40 times against Alabama successfully, and Cook isn't going to be an exception to that rule. He'll have to make some throws and get his top receiver, Aaron Burbridge involved, and he'll certainly be able to take some shots down the field against an Alabama secondary which has given up its share of 40+ yard plays in the passing game.
However, Cook won't be able to stand back there and take seven-step drops with regularity against a front seven which Florida coach Jim McElwain referred to as "creatures" before the SEC Championship Game.
The big test though, will be on the opposite side of the ball. Derrick Henry is going to get the ball 20 or 25 times in this game for sure, and it wouldn't be shocking if he ultimately toted the rock 40 times if that what was needed. It would be unrealistic to keep Henry under 100 yards in this one, even if the Spartans did keep Ezekiel Elliott dead silent in the Ohio State game. However, it's keeping Henry in the first and second tier of the defense that is the key.
It's been years since we've seen the Spartans flat out worn down by a running back or a spread offense, and we don't anticipate that happening in the Cotton Bowl either. Parlay that with a solid ground game to keep control of the ball, and the makings will be there for an upset in Arlington.
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