The Ohio Bobcats head south for the Dollar General Bowl against the Troy Trojans in Mobile on Friday night. The Bobcats nearly toppled Western Michigan in the MAC bowl and will try for an upset once again against a Trojan team that ended the season in the AP Top-25, becoming the Sun Belt’s first ever team with that distinction.
Watch this Dollar General Bowl matchup live on Friday, December 23, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at Ladd-Pebbles Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ohio +3.5
Troy -3.5
Over/Under 49
Odds Analysis
According to the total, we’re in for a reasonably low scoring game with a total of 49 with a narrow spread of just 3.5-points down from the four point spread when BookMaker opened the odds.
Troy is the favorites as they’re the de facto home team, traveling down from Troy to Mobile for the contest. The Trojans have struggled to cover as the favorite, going just 4-6 ATS in such games. More recently, they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven games and have just one win, both SU and ATS in their last three games.
Across the gridiron, the Bobcats have dropped two of their last three as well, but they’re 4-0 ATS as underdogs and are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
As for the total, the over hasn’t paid out since Week 1 in Ohio games. The under is also 3-0 in Troy’s last three games.
Player to Watch
It’s offense versus defense. Of course that’s obvious. More specifically, it’s the Trojan offense against the Ohio defense as the Sun Belt’s top offense takes on an Ohio team that rode its defense all season.
The Bobcats will turn to their stout defensive line as they look to shut down Troy’s Jordan Chunn. He’s the key player to watch in this contest.
Chunn is the most dynamic player on either team. He’s broke through for tons of long runs and has a conference leading 13 rushing touchdowns.
While the talented back is supported by a very good offensive line that’s allowed only seven sacks all year, he’s been able to use the protection to be a reliable performer game in and game out.
Chunn, however, will have to contend with a defense that’s ranked No. 6 in fewest rushing yards allowed per game at just 105.8. That line’s had plenty of success penetrating the backfield. Tarell Basham leads the team and conference in sacks. He’s the other key player given how few sacks the Trojans’ have allowed.
Ultimately, look for the Bobcats to penetrate the Trojan offensive line better than most, but the line still holds enough to give Troy the win and allow Chunn to have a strong performance.
Key Stat
Ohio has the edge defensively, but only by a small margin. Otherwise, this is Troy’s game as they will certainly have the advantage based on location.
One other potential thorn in the side for the Trojans are penalties. Troy’s struggled playing a clean, fundamental game from time-to-time, ranking No. 95 in the nation with 6.83 penalties committed per game.
While the Bobcats aren’t exactly the model of efficiency when it comes to penalties either, they rank slightly above average and are getting called on more than one fewer penalties per game.
The trick for the Bobcats will be to take advantage of the breaks on penalties when they arise. Meanwhile, Troy will need to avoid any mental errors in key situations that could hand Ohio an important first down or cost the Trojans some crucial yardage late.
Free ATS Pick
With the spread now reduced to just over a field goal, take the Trojans to have a strong game in their home state.
The Troy offensive line does well to minimize the impact of Basham. Chunn does well enough against a good Ohio rush defense while Brandon Silvers has a good game against a less than stellar Bobcat secondary.
Meanwhile, Ohio’s offense comes up short with Greg Windham, playing okay under center, but hardly providing enough production to make up for the lack of support around him. Still, this game remains close with a late score by Troy swinging the tide in the Trojans’ favor.
College Football Odds: Troy 28, Ohio 23
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
