Wins over New Mexico and San Diego State to end the year have propelled the Colorado State Rams to a 7-5 record despite a 3-4 start. The Rams will now have to play an in-effect road game against the Idaho Vandals who themselves won four straight games to close out the regular season. Now these teams will meet up in the Idaho Potato Bowl on Thursday night.
This contest in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl will go down Thursday, December 22, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Albertsons Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Idaho +13.5
Colorado State -13.5
Odds Analysis
It’s the Vandals who get to play in their home state, but the Rams are heavily favored as the spread has ticked up since it opened at 13-points.
Colorado State comes into action having won four of its last five games, but has exceeded expectations longer than that, covering seven straight contests dating back to October 8. Both teams have been strong ATS, but the Rams hold the edge going 10-2 ATS compared to the 8-4 mark for Idaho.
That said, the Vandals have also covered in seven straight games so one of these streaks has got to give.
Matchup to Watch
Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Matthews are the big forces to the Colorado State offense, each rushing at least 143 times and combining for 1,506 yards and 15 scores on the ground.
For the Rams to win, the two will need to find a way to beat a surprisingly solid rush defense for the Vandals. Idaho ranks No. 39 in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game at 145.9. Dawkins and Matthews will still get their yards, but given Idaho’s struggles in the secondary, the real matchup to watch on Thursday is the Vandals pass defense against Nick Stevens.
Idaho ranks No. 111 in the nation in passing yards allowed. That’s not good. Stevens, meanwhile, has played very good football since reclaiming the starting gig following the Colin Hill injury.
On October 15, he got his chance to shine and hasn’t looked back. Since then, he’s thrown 14 touchdowns and given up just a single interception. He’s coming off a 210 yards and four score game against a much better pass defense than Idaho has and has at least two touchdown passes in each game he’s started.
For Idaho, the rushing attack cannot keep up with Dawkins and Matthews and QB Matt Linehan can be turnover prone with two three turnover games. Defensively, while average overall, the Rams are one of the better teams against the pass, at least according to average passing yards per game.
Key Stat
Between a new-look Stevens and the wheels on both Dawkins and Matthews, Colorado State has been one of the better red-zone teams in college football, failing to put points on the board just three times in 52 chances. That’s a .940 scoring clip, good for sixth best in the nation.
Factoring out field goals, the Rams have pushed the ball into the end zone in 39 of 52 chances with a blend of rushing and passing plays leading to 21 rushing touchdowns in the red zone and 18 passing from within the 20.
Look for Colorado State to sustain its red zone success against a Vandals squad that’s been one of the nation’s worst teams defensively in the red zone. Idaho has allowed the opposition to put points on the board 91-percent of the time that they’ve reached the red zone. While that ranks the team No. 111 in the nation and is rather poor, they’ve been pretty good at limiting the damage.
Idaho has allowed just 27 of 46 opponent red zone chances to result in a touchdown. Even so, the Rams have the advantage when you get close to either end zone.
Free ATS Pick
The Rams head into Idaho and beat the Vandals easily. Colorado State has the better offense and the ability to balance a strong passing game behind Stevens who’s done well protecting the ball recently with a couple very good backs has this team stacked and easily in position to keep putting points on the board, particularly if they can make to the 20-yard line.
Defensively, the Rams have the better numbers as well, ranking ahead of Idaho in scoring defense and scoring is the name of the game.
In the end, look for Stevens, Matthews and Dawkins all to have strong performances in rout to a rout of the Vandals.
College Football Odds: Colorado State 41, Idaho 23
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