The North Dakota State Bison are an institution at this point. They have won five straight FCS Championships and have gone 5-0 against FBS opponents during that span, including a win on the road against a ranked Iowa team this season. However, they find themselves in an unfamiliar spot heading into this game. The buzz is about the James Madison Dukes, who outscored their opponents 120-29 over the first two weeks of the playoffs. Can NDSU make history and win six in a row or will James Madison win its first FCS Championship since 2004?
This FCS semifinal playoffs contest will go down Friday, December 16, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at the Fargodome. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN2.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
James Madison +8.5
North Dakota State -8.5
Over/Under 62
Odds Analysis
Even though North Dakota State is the team that everyone knows, look for money to come in on James Madison and eventually push the line under a touchdown. James Madison matches up very well with this North Dakota State team and sharps know that this line is inflated because the uninformed bettors who decide to wager on this one are going to overwhelmingly back the Bison.
Key Stat
James Madison has made it a habit to light up the scoreboard under new coach Mike Houston. The Dukes are averaging almost 50 points an affair this season and have looked increasingly unstoppable as the season has worn on. Twice James Madison has dropped 80 on a foe and the Dukes torched both New Hampshire and Sam Houston State in the first two rounds of the postseason.
The Dukes are averaging 291 YPG on the ground this season and the rushing attack ran roughshod over Sam Houston State last week. James Madison posted a 64-19 run-to-pass ratio and the damage could have been worse had Houston decided to run it up. His team carried the ball for 356 yards and 6 touchdowns on the day before pulling the starters in the fourth quarter.
They shouldn’t have that kind of success against a solid North Dakota State defense that is allowing just 15.8 PPG, but the Bison have had a little bit of difficulty stopping the run this season.
Matchup to Watch
North Dakota State prefers to keep the ball on the ground and its success running the football is the most important factor in the Bison’s chances. NDSU is averaging 249 YPG rushing and has used a slow, clock-control strategy to win games this season. The Bison ran for 300 yards against San Diego and South Dakota State in the first two rounds of the playoffs and took the pressure off young QB Easton Stick.
If James Madison can stop the run, then North Dakota State will be in trouble. The Dukes have the best secondary at the FCS level and completely shut down a Sam Houston State offense that was the best in FCS last week. The Bearkats managed to complete just 14 of 52 passes for 158 yards against the Dukes’ secondary as Jeremiah Briscoe was frustrated by the physicality of this unit. Stick has been a solid game manager this season, but whether or not he can take over a game and win it is unknown.
Free ATS Pick
This game will be played in a dome so weather won’t be a factor. North Dakota State has won 22 straight postseason games heading into this one and are a perfect 18-0 in playoff games at the Fargodome. However, as good as the Bison have been, they have only finished one season with an unblemished record so this team can be beat. 8.5 points should be plenty, but we’re going to call the outright upset and say that James Madison becomes the first team ever to knock off North Dakota State in the Fargodome during the playoffs.
College Football Odds: Dukes 35, Bison 31
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