Ohio State might be one of the four best teams in college football, but because it turtled against Michigan State in the biggest game of the year – and because it didn’t make much of a case over the first 10 games after several sluggish wins – it’s off to the Fiesta Bowl, instead of the Cotton or Orange.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +6.5
Over/Under 54
ODDS ANALYSIS
Ohio State struggled to cover spreads early this season but is 4-2 ATS over its last six games. Conversely, Notre Dame started 6-1 ATS then finished 2-3. The line held firm at Ohio State -6.5, but the total spiked to 56.5.
KEY MISMATCH
The Buckeyes’ secondary has been outstanding all season, but it hasn’t faced a receiver like Notre Dame’s Will Fuller. Michigan State’s Aaron Burbridge is probably the best Ohio State has faced to this point, and in the ultra-conservative game between the two, he caught four passes for 62 yards from a backup quarterback. The explosive Fuller has already said he’s coming back for another year, but there’s word he might change his mind if he blows up in the Fiesta Bowl and his stock goes through the roof. If he does return, he’ll be on the short list for the Biletnikoff Award after coming up with 56 catches for 1,145 yards and 13 scores, averaging 20.5 yards per grab. Fuller was dominant against Stanford and outstanding against Pitt and USC. He had a game-saver against Virginia and has been explosive from the start. He’s been a deep threat machine all season and has to take the top off the OSU secondary. Notre Dame needs to test him out early and see if he can take over.
KEY STAT
14.0 – Ohio State’s points per game allowed. The Buckeyes are second nationally in scoring defense and haven’t given up more than 17 points in their last six games. They face Notre Dame’s 32nd-ranked scoring offense.
BETTING ANGLE
Notre Dame is one of the most storied programs in the history of college football, but the Irish have not won a big one in quite some time. Notre Dame has lost seven consecutive games in the month of January but gets another chance to end that slump. With all they’ve had to deal with this year, it’s amazing how far the Irish have come. This is a team that lost six of its top players to season-ending injuries, including starting quarterback Malik Zaire. Despite the setbacks, Notre Dame has been able to trot out one of the best offensive trios in the nation with quarterback DeShone Kizer, running back C.J. Prosise and Fuller. The Irish suffered their two losses by a total of four points on the road at No. 1 Clemson and No. 6 Stanford. Notre Dame is that close to competing for a national championship. There are injury concerns surrounding Prosise, as he missed two of the final three games of the season.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Notre Dame came up empty in its two biggest games of the season and its glossy record is missing a signature win. The same could be said about the Buckeyes, who coughed up a hair ball in the one game that mattered most. But we’ll cut OSU some slack after winning the national championship last season. It’s been a while since Notre Dame won anything and once again the Irish appear to be overrated – but overrated with some talent. Notre Dame lost both its games by a combined four points, the slimmest of margins between playing for a national championship and battling Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. With those championship aspirations out of the way for both sides, the team with the most motivation will have the upper hand. After missing the fun last season as he recovered from a broken leg, Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett finally gets his shot to lead the way in a bowl game. OSU’s offense revolves around Ezekiel Elliott, and while he might be the star, this is Barrett’s moment, and he delivers.
Ohio State 28, Notre Dame 24
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