The Florida Gators kick off their SEC schedule on Saturday against the Kentucky Wildcats.
It’s a nice way to ease in for Florida who hasn’t lost to Kentucky since 1987, though Kentucky did beat the spread for the first time in seven years last season.
ODDS
Florida is on the road, but BookMaker opened them as favorites by a field goal and the spread has since stayed steady. The total has jumped up to 54 since opening at 53.5.
So far this year, both Gators’ games have exceeded the total as the offense has over performed expectations. They, however, struggled a bit defensively against East Carolina and fell ATS. For Florida, it was just its second loss ATS in its last eight games.
Over their last five games, the Gators are 4-1 ATS and over their last four on the road, they’re undefeated ATS. As for the Wildcats, they’ve struggled in SEC action, going just 7-18 ATS in their last 25 conference games.
KEY MISMATCH
Kentucky’s rushing attack has been very efficient so far. In two games, it’s averaged 192.5 yards per game which ranks No. 64, but it’s recorded more than six yards a carry and five touchdowns.
Stanley Williams is a big part of the rushing success in averaging 10.1 yards per carry and 242 total yards.
The Wildcats will have their work cut out for them on the ground on Saturday though as the Gators rank No. 3 in the sport in rushing defense, allowing just 1.16 yards per carry and 25.5 yards per game.
While the Kentucky passing game is just as productive in terms of yards, the running attack is a big part of its early success.
KEY STAT
1.000 – This is the red zone scoring percentage for the Wildcats through their first two games.
While Kentucky has failed to record a touchdown in the red zone twice, they notched field goals rather than squandering an opportunity.
Overall, the running game is the big key to the success as four of the teams five red zone touchdowns have come on the ground.
Of course, the Gators defense offers a larger challenge than they’ve faced thus far as they’ve allowed just two touchdowns in five red zone chances thus far. They’ve also held the opposition scoreless in two other opportunities.
BETTING ANGLE
There’s a bit of hostility in the Gator locker room at the moment following a gesture made by running back Kelvin Taylor following a touchdown. The gesture led to a penalty and head coach Jim McElwain flipping out.
On Monday, the depth chart was released and though he led the team in carries each of the first two weeks, he’s now listed as the third running back behind Jordan Scarlett and Jordan Cronkrite.
It’ll be interesting to see if the carries each player gets reflects the depth chart or if the move was all symbolic, but Cronkite and Scarlett have run well through the first two weeks and actually have a better yards per carry ratio than Taylor.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
These two teams have gotten closer over the past few seasons, and this could be the year the Wildcats finally beat Florida.
Kentucky barely lost in The Swamp last year and it now possesses the home field edge this time around.
With a balanced offense, they can also counter the Florida defense which thrives against the run, but has had some issues defending the pass.
Meanwhile, the Gators have yet to establish a starting quarterback. The two-QB system is working so far against lesser defenses, but we’ll see how it pans out in SEC play.
Kentucky 30, Florida 27
BookMaker opened the spread for this game at -3 in favor of the Gators. The NCAA lines total surfaced at 53.5. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone or tablet with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the Florida Gators and Kentucky Wildcats will take place Saturday, September 19, 2015, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Commonwealth Stadium. The contest will be broadcast live on the SEC Network.
