The Florida Gators have risen from a preseason afterthought to No. 8 in the rankings and the top spot in the SEC East. They should be jubilant in Gainesville. But instead, the mood turned sour following the suspension of starting quarterback Will Grier. Now the Gators visit Death Valley to face the undefeated LSU Tigers and the best player in college football Leonard Fournette in what could be a preview of the SEC Championship game.
ODDS
LSU opened as a 6-point favorite with the total at 47.5. The line spiked to -9.5 after news of Grier’s suspension, but the drop-off shouldn’t be too significant making Florida the smart play with the points. And the Gators are 5-1 ATS this season. The total also took a drop, falling to 46.
KEY MISMATCH
The Tigers aren’t all about Leonard Fournette. Because South Carolina was able to contain the star running back and Heisman frontrunner for much of last Saturday’s game, LSU needed more production from quarterback Brandon Harris – and the Tigers got it. He set career-highs with 18 completions, 28 attempts and 228 yards while throwing for two touchdowns in a 45-24 rout of the Gamecocks. Fournette’s output was low by his standards. He finished with 158 rushing yards, but that was a season-low for him and more than half came on an 87-yard touchdown in the third quarter. Outside of that carry, he picked up 71 yards on 19 attempts. Florida has a strong front seven, but even the Gators can’t stop Fournette without stacking the box. That puts added pressure on their secondary to win one-on-one matchups. South Carolina couldn’t do it and Harris exploded for a career day.
KEY STAT
100.5 – Average rushing yards per game allowed by Florida. The Gators haven’t faced a back like Fournette, who leads the country with 204.4 rush yards per game, 46 more than the next player.
BETTING ANGLE
Quarterback Treon Harris was never really out of the mix. He played briefly in Florida’s last two games, so starting him at No. 6 LSU won’t be a total shock for the eighth-ranked Gators. Harris steps in for the suspended Grier for the rest of the season, though Florida is appealing the suspension. It might even back up coach Jim McElwain’s insistence that he had two quarterbacks capable of winning in the SEC. The coach was critical of Grier’s performance in each of his five starts, saying he rushed throws, missed open receivers and left points on the field. Yet he didn’t put Harris back in the No. 1 spot after starting the season opener and coming off the bench the following week. Harris hasn’t thrown a meaningful pass since. Harris is the more agile of the two, but the Gators might not want him scrambling too often or taking too many hits. There is little depth behind him with former Vandy player Josh Grady the backup. But the mental toll of losing a starting quarterback, especially one who was playing well in an offense thirsty for strong play at the position, could derail Florida’s season.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
All eyes will be on Treon Harris, Florida’s Week 1 starter, to prove he’s not a drop off after Grier. Prior to the Ole Miss game, McElwain made it sound like Harris had a shot to win the job, so he should, theoretically, play at or near Grier’s level. But there’s a reason why he didn’t, and it wasn’t based on the play of Grier. Harris has been up and down in his career and LSU has the mental edge of facing a “backup” quarterback. The Tigers also have Fournette, the best back in football. He may be slowed down, much like South Carolina did for much of last week’s game, but keep feeding him the football and chances are he’ll break a big one or two. The Tigers also have the edge of playing at home, where they’ve been for the past two games after the South Carolina game was moved to Baton Rouge. Even minus Grier, Florida will hang with LSU. That would have been the case regardless.
LSU 27, Florida 21
The college football lines for this contest were first released by BookMaker and the Tigers were positioned as 6-point favorites with a total of 47.5. Gamble on the game between every commercial break with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen on the next play or how many points will be scored in the next quarter. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device or tablet at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The Florida Gators and LSU Tigers square off on Saturday, October 17, 2015, at 7 p.m. ET at Tiger Stadium. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
You can watch the game live on ESPN2.
