Clemson has a clear path to the College Football Playoff if it can get past Florida State in a game that likely decides the ACC Atlantic Division title. The Seminoles could have playmakers Everett Golson and Dalvin Cook back in the lineup after the two missed last week’s game, which will boost their chances of an upset. The home team is 8-2 SU over the last 10 meetings, but just 5-5 ATS.
ODDS
Clemson opened as a 12-point favorite with the total at 56. For the first time in quite a while the Noles are pegged as double-digit dogs. FSU hasn’t been given this many points in a game since 2009, when they lost 37-10 as 24-point dogs to rival Florida. There could be some movement on the spread if some key FSU performers are cleared to play.
KEY MISMATCH
Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson may be the best player the Seminoles face all season. He’s gained 1,190 yards of total offense in the last two games and is coming off a superior performance in a win over NC State when he accounted for six touchdowns. But the Florida State defense is silencing its critics from a season ago. With a renewed passion for swarming to the football and the right mix of veteran leadership and younger players evolving into prominent roles, coordinator Charles Kelly’s defense is peaking at the right time. FSU eclipsed last season’s total for quarterback hurries and sacks during its win over Syracuse and limited the Orange to four plays or fewer on eight of their 14 drives. The improvements on defense are also noticeable on third down. FSU allows opponents to convert just 36 percent of the time, compared to 44 percent in 2014. The Noles give up an average 323.5 yards of offense compared to nearly 400 per game last season. FSU is ranked 14th in the nation in scoring defense allowing an average of 16.8 points per game.
KEY STAT
16.8 – Florida State’s points per game allowed. The Seminoles rank 14th nationally but have surrendered at least 21 points in the past four. Clemson scores an average of 40.6 points per game and has tallied better than 50 in each of its last two.
BETTING ANGLE
The unbeaten Tigers are still part of the College Football Playoff conversation after outlasting North Carolina State last week. Clemson rallied from a 20-19 late first half deficit to take the lead for good on a Watson scoring pass, one of his five on the day, eventually covering as a 13-point road favorite. At 5-0 in ACC play, a half-game up on FSU, the Tigers could basically clinch the Atlantic Division title with a win, considering their last two conference games are against Syracuse and Wake Forest. If Florida State wants to win the division they will need to beat the Tigers, but the Seminoles have struggled in Clemson, going just 1-5 SU and ATS in their past six visits to Death Valley. A win gives the Tigers a clear path to the playoff while FSU is a little banged up at some key spots. Clemson outplayed the Noles last year and probably should have won that game. FSU hasn’t been this much of a dog in the Jimbo Fisher era and it’s just the fourth time they’ve been underdogs on the road.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
No Everett Golson and Dalvin Cook, no problem for the Seminoles, who rolled over Syracuse behind backup quarterback Sean Maguire and running back Jacques Patrick. It appears as though the Noles will have both players back for this showdown which will help offensively. And that’s important since FSU will have to keep up with Watson and the high-flying Clemson offense. FSU coach Jimbo Fisher said he may use both quarterbacks against the Tigers, a sign that maybe Golson isn’t 100 percent. Clemson’s usually stout defense gave up 41 points to NC State last week, matching the total from the previous three games combined in what could have been a look-ahead for the Tigers. They are focused now and everything points to a Clemson win at home with an ACC Atlantic Division title on the line. The availability of Golson and Cook will certainly have an impact on the line. If they’re cleared expect the spread to close a bit.
Clemson 38, Florida State 28
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