For the Indiana Hoosiers, it’s been nearly a decade since they’ve finished a season with seven wins and more than two since their last bowl game victory. Tom Allen will have his guys fighting hard to put an end to both of those streaks in the wake of Kevin Wilson’s departure, but the Utah Utes present a difficult matchup for the Hoosiers in the Foster Farms Bowl.
This matchup the Foster Farms Bowl will take place on Wednesday, December 28, 2016, at 8:30 p.m. ET at Levi’s Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Indiana +7.5
Utah -7.5
Over/Under 54
Odds Analysis
Ranked No. 19 in the nation, there’s little doubt that Utah is the superior team and with the spread sitting at a touchdown in their favor, the odds still seem a bit in their favor. After all, Indiana hasn’t exactly dominated ATS, particularly as underdogs, going 1-3 ATS in their last four games as the pups.
On top of that, the Hoosiers are winless ATS in their last four games at a neutral site and the Utes are undefeated ATS in their last six games against a Big Ten opponent. They’ve also faired very well in their last six bowl games, covering the spread five times.
It’s Utah’s defense and physicality that gives the Utes the edge and while Indiana has a strong offense that can put up points fast, they’ve gone a couple decades now without a bowl victory.
Player to Watch
If nothing else, Joe Williams has been a fun story. He was terrible in the opening weeks of the season. Things got so bad that he quit, but since returning he’s been transformed.
Williams is lightning fast with breakaway speed that could prove to be a challenge for the Hoosiers’ defense. If they cannot stop him up front he could rack up the yardage in chunks on Wednesday night.
In his six games since his return to the gridiron, he’s now rushed for 1,110 yards and scored nine touchdowns. We saw him score 332 yards and four touchdowns against UCLA earlier this year and he tallied at least 149 yards and one score in his first five games before getting just 97 yards in his season finale against Colorado.
The No. 10 ranked Buffaloes found a way to contain him—sort of—but the Hoosiers don’t have the same defensive prowess.
To win, Indiana needs to wrap Williams up and prevent him from breaking through the front line. They aren’t strong enough tacklers to bring him down with enough frequency when he gets rolling.
Key Stat
Watch out for interceptions. That’s been a major issue for Indiana. The Hoosiers’ offense has been carried by the passing game which ranks No. 25 in the nation in total yards compared to the No. 90 ranking of the running game, but while Richard Lagow has amassed 3,174 yards, he’s only managed to throw for 18 touchdowns while giving up 16 interceptions.
Thanks to 17 interceptions thrown as a team, the Hoosiers have a turnover margin of negative seven, ranking amongst the worst 20 teams in the FBS.
To make things worse, Utah has one of the better turnover margins and has nabbed 17 interceptions from the opposition. Look for Lagow to make a few costly mistakes in this one as Devin Redding stumbles against a Utes’ rush defense ranked No. 25 in yardage. The loss of Cody Barton could allow Lagow a bit more time or open up a running lane for Redding, but I’m not overly optimistic that it provides enough of a bump, particularly with Lagow having just thrown three interceptions against Purdue in his last game.
Free ATS Pick
Take Utah to cover and take the over on the total as offense leads the way in what should be a reasonably close game.
Don’t underestimate the Hoosiers. They’re going to get some production from Redding on the ground and Zander Diamont will give the team a few nice alternative looks, too, but ultimately Lagow won’t be able to protect the ball well enough and the Utah defense will nab a few key turnovers that will put the Utes in position to do some damage.
On offense, look to Joe Williams to have a monster game while the other Williams—Troy Williams—protects the ball well enough. In the end, this Utah team is the superior team. They’re better on offense, more dependable defensively and don’t have a sudden coaching change looming over their heads.
College Football Odds: Utah 34, Indiana 24
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