One of three five-win teams to receive a bowl berth, the Cornhuskers will look to justify the NCAA’s decision to hand it a bowl while taking on a UCLA squad that handed it a 41-21 loss the last time they faced over two years ago.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Nebraska Cornhuskers +6
UCLA Bruins -6
Over/Under 60
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Bruins are the sizeable favorites on Saturday as they face the under-.500 Cornhuskers. BookMaker opened the odds with the spread at -6 and the total at 60. Since that time, both have bumped up marginally with the spread gaining half a point up to -6.5 in UCLA’s favor and the total adding a point up to 61.
The under is 6-2 in Nebraska’s last eight bowl games and 3-0-1 in the Bruins last four games overall.
KEY MISMATCH
Overall, the Cornhuskers’ defense is average, allowing 401.6 total yards per game and 27.8 PPG, but the team is night and day against the run and against the pass.
Nebraska is a top-ten team against the rush, allowing just 113.4 yards per game with a strong front seven, but the Cornhuskers’ secondary is atrocious. Nebraska ranks amongst the worst teams in football against the pass, allowing 288.2 passing yards per game, ranking No. 122.
The Bruins should be able to take advantage of the Cornhuskers’ porous secondary. UCLA freshman quarterback Josh Rosen put up a stellar season. The Bruins are averaging 286.4 yards per game in the air.
Overall, Rosen is completing just under 60 percent of his passes and has amassed 3,350 yards and 20 touchdown passes. He did allow two interceptions in his last game, a loss to USC. Before that, however, he went five games without an interception.
To accompany the team’s strong passing attack, the Bruins also boast a strong rushing game. While Nebraska defends the run well, having the ability to move the ball on the ground gives UCLA some choices.
Running back Paul Perkins isn’t in for a huge game given the defense, but with 1,275 rushing yards and 13 scores, he should be able to do enough to help open up some passing lanes for Rosen.
KEY STAT
.454 – The Bruins have converted over 45 percent of their third down chances this season and are amongst the best offenses in that category.
Nebraska, meanwhile, ranks No. 22 in third down defense. The team is allowing opposing offenses to covert on only 33.5 percent of their third down opportunities.
Nebraska’s success on third down is due to a strong rushing defense, but the Bruins have the ability to convert with short down passes, too, which could complicate things for the Huskers.
BETTING ANGLE
A 5-7 record along with losses to Northwestern and Purdue define this team and head coach Mike Riley’s miserable first season in Lincoln, but the Cornhuskers do have one strong win on their record, toppling Michigan State.
The Spartans are one of four teams competing for the College Football championship and their only loss came against the Cornhuskers who produced a narrow 39-38 victory.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
With Rosen throwing the ball against a porous Nebraska secondary, look for UCLA to move the ball down the field with ease. The rushing game behind Perkins may be stifled a bit, but UCLA will continue to utilize the run with minimal success.
Offensively, Nebraska will try and keep up, helping to make the over a solid bet, but are likely to fall short. They’ve been prone to late game losses and are in for another one on Saturday.
Tony Armstrong Jr., Terrell Newby and Jordan Westerkamp are a solid trio of talent offensively, but Armstrong has been prone to the interception with 16 and a late interception could be the difference between ripping up a ticket and heading back to the betting window to cash it.
UCLA 35, Nebraska 27
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