With Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray out for the Aggies, it leaves the inexperienced Jake Hubenak the one taking the snaps under center. Hubenak will have plenty of targets, but the pressure will be on the defense to keep Lamar Jackson and Kyle Bolin at bay.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas A&M Aggies +3
Louisville Cardinals -3
Over/Under 46
ODDS ANALYSIS
BookMaker originally opened the spread with the Cardinals the 3-point chalk and bettors continue to back Louisville with the spread having grown a point to -4 in the Cards’ favor.
The total has added a point and a half since the line opened and now sits at 47.5.
Texas A&M has covered the spread the last three times these teams squared off, of course that goes back to 1994. Over their last seven games overall, the Aggies are just 1-6 ATS and the Cardinals are just 2-5 ATS.
KEY MISMATCH
The Cardinals have a dual threat quarterback in Lamar Jackson who beat Kentucky with his legs in their last game, rushing for 186 yards and two touchdowns on top of the 130 passing yards and touchdown he secured on eight completions.
Texas A&M could have trouble containing Jackson on the ground. Their front seven is one of their weaknesses and has allowed 212.2 rushing yards per contest.
Of course, Jackson isn’t the only threat on the ground. He’s leading the team with 5.2 yards per carry and 734 total yards, but Brandon Radcliff has 128 carries of his own and figures to play in spite of an ankle injury. He adds a nice added dimension on the ground along with Jackson. The two have combined for 16 rushing touchdowns.
To make things even more difficult for the Aggies, Jackson has made some plays with his arm, too. Of course, the Aggies’ secondary is very good, the fact the defense has to at least respect the pass helps spread things out for the ground game.
KEY STAT
.355 – This is the percentage of first downs allowed by the Cardinals when it forces the opposition into third down situations.
With its first and second string quarterbacks at the helm, the Aggies have converted 43.2 percent of their third downs into first downs, helping the offense move down the field.
Given the replacement under center, that number is likely to be lower in the Music City Bowl due to Louisville’s defensive prowess.
BETTING ANGLE
As indicated above, the Music Bowl will be the first start for Hubenak who will quarterback this team in the most important game of the year.
In five appearances this year, the inexperienced former third-stringer has completed 12-of-27 passes for 92 yards and a touchdown.
With someone so green under center, look for the Aggies to turn to their running game to pick up some of the slack. That’s the queue for Tra Carson. He’s the team leader in rushing with 1,059 yards and six scores.
Of course, as a team, the Aggies are only ranked No. 66 on the ground, averaging 171.7 yards per game.
The Louisville defense is also very strong against the run, allowing 118.8 rushing yards per game to rank No. 14 nationwide.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
It’s been disappointing seasons for both Louisville and Texas A&M, but somebody has to win and cover this game.
Texas A&M going with a brand new quarterback under center is a major blow to its chances. Their offense has been led by the pass and will change course in a bowl game which is always a hard thing to do.
The Cardinals defense figures to make it even harder. The Cardinals offense may be lacking, but the defense has been a bright spot all NCAAF season long.
Look for the Cardinals to hold the Aggies new-look offense down while scoring enough against a very weak Aggies rush defense to earn the win by a sizeable margin.
Louisville 30, Texas A&M 20
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