Almost 700 yards and 76 points later, the Ole Miss Rebels put up one of the most impressive wins of the first week of the college football season when they thrashed Tennessee-Martin 76-3. They'll get tested just a bit more than that on Saturday against the Fresno State Bulldogs, but don't be stunned if the result is once again lopsided.
ODDS ANALYSIS
We're only about 16 hours into betting action being live for this game at the time of this article's print, and there's already a slew of money coming in on the Rebs. They started at -26.5 and have already jumped up to -28. Though that isn't considered a "key number" per se, any higher, and it'll take five scores to get Mississippi in front of the spread.
KEY MISMATCH
The one thing Fresno State has that Tennessee-Martin surely doesn't is a running back that can be explosive both in the rushing game and the passing game. Marteze Waller averaged over six yards per carry last year en route to 1,368 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns, and he averaged over two catches per game out of the backfield, too.
Though you wouldn't know it from what you saw against UTM, Mississippi can be troubled by these smaller, quicker running backs. The senior rumbled for 154 yards on 22 carries against Abilene Christian last week.
The only issue that we have is that Waller has actually never had a 100+ yard rushing game against a Power 5 conference team in his career. If he can't get going, the Bulldogs are as good as fodder in this game.
KEY STAT
455.5 – The number of yards which Fresno State's defense allowed last season. There were only 13 teams in America last season which allowed more than 200 passing yards, 200 rushing yards and 30 points per game last year, and the Bulldogs were one of the unlucky ones.
BETTING ANGLE
SEC teams went 8-4-1 ATS over the course of the opening weekend of the year, including when Ole Miss trounced its FCS foe by more than 10 touchdowns. Furthermore, only one of the teams in action lost, that being Vanderbilt at home against Western Kentucky.
It's actually unusual to see the SEC get off to such a great start from an ATS standpoint, but perhaps after a bowl season in which the conference got crushed by non-conference foes, the oddsmakers have cooled their jets on the SEC bias just a bit early in 2015.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
We really haven't learned much of anything yet about either of these teams since both played against FCS foes in Week 1, and we probably aren't going to learn a lot either in Week 2.
Ole Miss impresses us, but we still aren't sure about Chad Kelly as a starting quarterback in the SEC.
The defense for the Bulldogs is scary in this game, but we know they are going to try to run the ball with Waller as much as they can, which should at least eat up some of the possessions in this game. There's no way that Ole Miss is dropping a 70 burger for the second straight week.
We'll take the points, but the over is going to end up being the better play as we see it. This parlay between the underdogs and the over is going to be correlated.
Ole Miss 48, Fresno State 27
BookMaker opened the spread for this Saturday game at -26.5 in favor of the Ole Miss Rebels. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on your television with BookMaker's live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here, so start betting with BookMaker today! The game between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Ole Miss Rebels will go down Saturday, September 12, 2015 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. The matchup will be televised on ESPN2.
