The matchup between Georgia and Florida could be called the unofficial SEC East championship game because the winner will have the inside track to capturing the division title. The Gators lost on the road to an unbeaten LSU team by a slim margin, proving they are the team to beat in the East. In their first game without Nick Chubb, the Bulldogs failed to score a touchdown. They did beat Missouri, though, and are just a game behind Florida in the standings.
ODDS
Florida opened as a 1-point favorite with the total at 47.5. The line was wagered to -2.5 while the total tumbled to 45.5. Florida has been good to its backers with a 5-2 ATS record while Georgia is just 2-5 ATS and needed a late field goal to beat Mizzou last week as a 15.5-point favorite.
KEY MISMATCH
Georgia has had issues dealing with dual threat quarterbacks and that’s positive news for Florida and Treon Harris. For the most part the Gators have struggled on offense, ranking eighth in the SEC in scoring. And with Will Grier suspended for the rest of the season, they will have to rely on Harris. He played well against LSU, throwing for 271 yards and two touchdowns with no picks. But he was sacked five times, which proved to be the difference in the game. Harris has experienced the Bulldogs before, leading the Gators to a 38-20 rout last season, and will have to be better at avoiding the rush to keep the chains moving. Look for Harris to use his agility more in the backfield as a runner to soften up the Bulldogs’ line. Florida can look at Georgia’s film from the Tennessee game when Vols’ quarterback Joshua Dobbs ran for 118 yards and two touchdowns and threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns, which led to a Vols’ win.
KEY STAT
21.0 – Florida’s quarterback sack total. The Gators are third in the SEC in sacks but failed to get one at LSU two weeks ago. Georgia has done a nice job protecting Grayson Lambert and has allowed just eight sacks in seven games, the second-best total in the conference.
BETTING ANGLE
Competing for the SEC East title is the annual goal in Gainesville, but it hasn’t been all that realistic since 2009. This season, though, the Gators have been one of the more surprising teams in the conference and the country. Florida hasn’t been this close to winning the SEC East since 2012, when a 17-9 loss to Georgia left the Gators out of the championship game. Coach Jim McElwain and the 11th-ranked Gators face rival Georgia in nearby Jacksonville with a chance to move ever-so-close to locking up a spot in the league’s title game in December. Although the Gators can’t officially wrap up a trip to Atlanta with a win, a victory would give them a two-game lead with two games remaining. Georgia is reeling from the loss of Nick Chubb and didn’t score a touchdown in its first game without him, beating Missouri 9-6 in a snoozer. Florida may be the favorite in the game, but because we’ve seen it many times before in this series, anything can and will happen.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Based on what’s happened the last few years in this series, this will come down to the wire. Both teams are coming off bye weeks and should display plenty of vigor for this rivalry game. And to perform better than the last time they were on the field. The loss of top-tier Heisman candidate Chubb hurts Georgia. The Bulldogs didn’t score a touchdown against Missouri last time out and managed just 298 yards of offense. Sure the Missouri defense is tough, but come on. It means guys like Sony Michel, Brendan Douglas, Terry Godwin and Jay Rome will need to make plays. It won’t be easy to do consistently because Florida has a lot of moving parts on defense and will make sure that Georgia’s running game doesn’t get going. If the Gators stop the run and force Lambert to beat them, they will win this game. Lambert has been far too inconsistent and was shaky last time out with no Chubb in the backfield. Florida’s D isn’t as good statistically as Missouri’s, but they have quality athletes and will make the going tough for the Bulldogs.
Florida 27, Georgia 23
The college football odds for this game were first available at BookMaker Sportsbook. The Gators were pegged as 1-point chalk while the total opened at 47.5. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
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