For the second straight year, the New Mexico Lobos have earned a New Mexico Bowl bid, this time taking on the Texas – San Antonio Roadrunners as they look to avenge themselves after a tough loss to Arizona in this game last year. The Roadrunners get the bid in this bowl after just six wins. The Lobos, meanwhile, will be favored as they nabbed eight victories.
Watch this New Mexico Bowl matchup live on Saturday, December 17, 2016, at 2 p.m. ET at University Stadium.
Odds Analysis
The Roadrunners will enter their bowl game coming off a win. That’s big for a team that had dropped back-to-back games prior to the season finale.
Of course, Charlotte isn’t the toughest team in the world, but a 33-14 win is still a nice confidence booster.
While UTSA has one just one of their last three games, they’ve covered the spread in four of their last five games after rough start to the season ATS and are trending well in that category headed into Saturday’s action.
On the other side of the gridiron, the Lobos will be looking to cover the spread for its second straight game after nabbing their commanding win over Wyoming despite a three-point spread. Overall, this team is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games, trending well much like UTSA.
Matchup to Watch
Watch to see how well New Mexico can move the ball on the ground against the UTSA defensive front.
The Roadrunners need to slow the Lobo’s rushing game in a way Wyoming wasn’t able to if they’re going to record the upset against the de facto home team.
New Mexico is an old school team, running the ball down the throat of the competition. The Lobos are ranked first in college football with 360.9 rushing yards per game. Of course, as a trade-off, they’re only throwing for 109.3 per game.
In their last game, the Lobos beat Wyoming 56-35 by running for an absolutely staggering 568 yards, nabbing 12.3 yards per carry. They got at least 121 rushing yards from three different players. Teriyon Gipson led the way with 217 yards and notched two touchdowns. The team had seven combined rushing touchdowns.
Defensively, the Roadrunners are better against the run than Wyoming. They’re in the middle of the pack, allowing 157.8 rushing yards per game. There’s no doubt that the Lobos will top that by quite a wide margin, but you can at least look for Texas – San Antonio to hold its own on defense at least for a stretch. Eventually, however, this team is just too strong on the ground. Look for the Roadrunners defensive front to tire as the game continues and the Lobos to be able to move the ball more and more effectively as the game progresses, particularly given their plethora of running options.
Last Meeting
It’s been a bit of time since these two teams last met, squaring off back in 2014. In that game, the Lobos out rushed the Roadrunners 283 yards to 112 and such a stark difference will likely repeat itself here in 2016.
Interestingly, UTSA did manage to hold Gipson to just 32 yards on 15 carries in that game, but this is a more experienced and better runner now. Even stopping him, however, there were two players with at least 100 yards for the Lobos, including Lamar Jordan who is back under center on Saturday.
Jordan completed 7 of 11 passes that day, too, to at least give the offense a bit of a different look. He rushed the ball nine times for 106 yards and a score.
On the other side, Texas – San Antonio did little on offense, throwing a pair of picks that helped put New Mexico in perfect position for the win.
Free ATS Pick
The Lobos won’t be able to run completely at will like they did against Wyoming, but they’re still going to get more than enough yards to lead to a strong win over UTSA.
New Mexico has the edge offensively over the Roadrunners, even with a one sided offense. Defensively, these teams are both pretty balanced, although neither is particularly dominating. Meanwhile, both special teams and coaching leans this one further in the Lobos’ favor.
Count on home field playing a role in the win for New Mexico, too. The Lobos win in commanding fashion with Gipson, Tyrone Owens and Richard McQuarley all likely to carry the ball across the end zone, possibly multiple times each. Bank on a strong second half for New Mexico as I can see UTSA holding strong for a stretch, but eventually the Lobo’s constant barrage on the ground will overbear them.
College Football Odds: New Mexico 37, Texas-San Antonio 21
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