Old friends and colleagues meet up as Alabama's Nick Saban faces his former employer, the Michigan State Spartans.
One of Saban's former assistants is at the helm in East Lansing as Saban and Mark Dantonio prepare to go face-to-face with their teams squaring off for a chance at advancing to the National Championship game.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michigan State Spartans +10
Alabama Crimson Tide -10
Over/Under 49
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Tide remain heavy favorites at -10 with the spread holding steady since first released. The total, meanwhile, has seen some adjustment, dropping three points down to 46.
Coming into play, the Spartans have covered the spread in their last four bowl games while the over has paid out in eight of Alabama's last nine bowl appearances.
KEY MISMATCH
Whenever you have the Heisman Trophy winner on your team, it's hard not to point to him as a mismatch for anyone.
Derrick Henry ran for 1,986 yards and 23 touchdowns this season. He's carries the ball a staggering 339 times and averaged rushing for 5.9 yards per carry. He's also added 10 receptions for 97 yards as part of a short passing attack.
Defensively, the Spartans have the tools to overcome a strong Alabama offense. Michigan State is allowing only 20.5 PPG and ranks No. 9 in the nation against the rush, allowing just 113.1 rushing yards per game.
Of course, Henry can still put up numbers against anyone. He threw up 147 yards against an even higher ranked Wisconsin rush defense earlier this year.
Perhaps the best thing about Henry, is he takes so much of the opposition's attention. The talented running back could open things up for quarterback Jake Coker who has 2,489 passing yards and 17 touchdowns this year. Those numbers are a bit subdued as his arm takes a back seat to Henry's legs, but if Michigan State is able to slow Henry down, the Crimson Tide have the ability to continue pushing offensively in the air.
KEY STAT
.505 – This is the third down conversion percentage for the Spartans. Michigan State ranks No. 4 in the nation and is one of only six teams recording a first down on more than half of their chances on third down.
The Spartans are known for their stout defense, but they can move the ball down the field and find the first downs when needed on offense as well.
Connor Cook leads the offensive charge. The quarterback is dealing with a shoulder injury but should play on Thursday. He's completing only 56.8 percent of his passes, but has a 24:5 touchdown to interception ratio. He's also shown an ability to convert the first downs.
By comparison, the Tide are only converting first downs on 36.4 percent of their third down opportunities despite the dominance of Henry on the ground.
BETTING ANGLE
Much like the Spartans, the Tide also boast a very good defense. Defense and running the ball has been a successful formula for the SEC powerhouse.
Alabama ranks No. 3 in the nation with only 14.4 PPG allowed and second with 258.1 total yards allowed per game.
The Tide's best strength is their ability to stop the run. L.J. Scott and company could be greatly hindered by that. Still, Cook is the heart and soul of this offense and given his defense, he won't be asked to do too much against the tough Alabama defense.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Michigan State's defense should keep the Crimson Tide at bay in the Cotton Bowl, but I still expect Henry to break through for a few big runs as he did against Wisconsin at the beginning of the year.
Despite that, the Spartan's ability to convert on third down should keep them in the game, as should their lack of turnovers.
Overall, 10 points is too much to give when the teams are so evenly matched.
Michigan State could record an upset if their defense can do enough against Henry, but either way, look for them to at least be able to cover the spread for their fifth straight bowl game.
Alabama 23, Michigan State 20
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