It won’t be a White Christmas for the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders as they head to Honolulu to take on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve. Look for tons of offense and scoring in an exciting back-and-forth bout between two strong offenses and two terrible defensive units.
This matchup in Hawaii Bowl will take place on Saturday, December 24, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Hawaiian Airlines Field and Aloha Stadium.
Odds Analysis
Hawaii gets the bowl bid despite sitting at 6-7 and they should be favored at home against the 8-4 Blue Raiders.
In addition to a below-.500 SU record, the Rainbow Warriors have also fallen to the spread more than they’ve covered, going 5-7 ATS while Middle Tennessee is 6-5 ATS. Of course, neither of those lines are particularly awe inspiring.
Hawaii’s recent run has been particularly troublesome for bettors. The team’s failed to cover the spread now in five straight games, completely negating a 5-2 ATS start.
As a result of that trend, don’t be afraid of taking the Blue Raiders if the line is right. Middle Tennessee has covered the spread in back-to-back games and in four of its last seven.
Matchup to Watch
The defenses are bad on both sides, leaving this to be a shooting match between two high-powered offenses, both looking to go big early.
The Blue Raiders’ defense ranks No. 101 in the nation with 34.4 PPG allowed and has had issues stopping the run and the pass while the Rainbow Warriors have been an even worse defense, allowing 37.5 PPG and giving up a staggering 234.8 rushing yards per game. Hawaii fares better against the pass.
Offensively, Middle Tennessee is more about the pass, but with Brent Stockstill out and John Urzua dealing with a concussion, the weakness of Hawaii’s front seven could allow someone like I’Tavius Mathers to take control of this game. He’s been a strong answer in the backfield for the Blue Raiders all year long, rushing for 1,504 yards and averaging 6.8 per carry. He’s also pushed the ball over the goal line 16 times.
In the huge 77-56 win over Florida Atlantic with Stockstill on the shelf, Mathers came up huge, rushing for 213 yards and three scores.
Meanwhile, for Hawaii, the Rainbow Warriors don’t have gaudy offensive numbers, but they have very good numbers at home and very poor numbers on the road. Hawaii remains on the island for this game and that’s huge.
Steven Lakalaka has been a blessing at the goal line and meanwhile Dru Brown and Diocemy Saint Juste has been strong rushing the ball, too. He and Paul Harris each have at least six yards a carry when given the chance.
In the end, it comes down to which defense is less terrible and according to the numbers, that’s Middle Tennessee. Of course, it’s Hawaii’s defense that may have the better matchup due to injuries.
Injury Report.
Speaking of injuries. Stockstill and Urzua are both questionable to start this Christmas Eve showdown.
Beyond those two, Middle Tennessee is left with Richie James and Dennis Andrews who have combined for 10 passes and eight completions in very, very limited action.
Urzuna should clear the concussion protocol in time, but even if he does can he carry the load against Hawaii in Honolulu?
Without a clear answer under center, this Blue Raiders become a huge wildcard. Middle Tennessee likely still pulls it out if this is on the main land, but not so much the case in Hawaii given the Rainbow Warriors record there.
Free ATS Pick
Hawaii returns to the Hawaii Bowl for the first time since 2010 and are looking to capture their first win at this bowl game in a decade. They’re in good position to do just that. A Rainbow Warrior team at full strength gets the nod on offense over the Blue Raiders and should to just enough against the Middle Tennessee’s depleted offense without their field general on the gridiron to capture the victory.
All the issues aside, offense still rules the day on Christmas Eve. Take the Rainbow Warriors to get the bowl victory in their home state as Lakalaka, Brown and company tears apart the Blue Raiders’ defense.
College Football Odds: Hawaii 48, Middle Tennessee 40
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