After a short drive south, the North Texas Mean Green are in position to take advantage of an in-effect home field edge, but the Army Black Knights fan base travels well. The Black Knights are also playing better right now than the Mean Green, coming off a win against Navy. North Texas, on the other hand, went just 5-7 in the regular season, but one of those five wins was against the very same Army team they face here in the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl.
This contest in the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl will go down Tuesday, December 27, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at the Cotton Bowl.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Army -10
North Texas +10
Over/Under 49
Odds Analysis
Void of any movement on the spread or the total, the odds remain locked at where they were when BookMaker first released them, featuring the Black Knights as 10-point favorites in the Mean Green’s back yard.
North Texas beat Army and covered the spread in their meeting against them earlier this year, but since that time, the Mean Green are 1-4 ATS as the offense has become sluggish and the defense has allowed at least 45-points in three of their last four games.
Flip things over to the Army side of things and back-to-back wins both SU and ATS have the Black Knights flying high, particularly since the latest was an upset win over Navy.
Last Meeting
It’s not overly common for bowl opponents to have met earlier in the year, but that’s the case for these two teams.
Army dropped the game to North Texas back in October, yet it’s the Black Knights that currently sit as double-digit favorites after their in against Navy on Saturday.
North Texas typically has trouble against the run, ranking as one of the worst teams in college football in total rushing yards allowed per game, but they had a good showing against the Army’s options. Of course, picking off four of Ahmad Bradshaw’s 21 throws doesn’t hurt either.
Still, the Black Knights amassed just 302 rushing yards—and for them the word ‘just’ is apt there as they had 4.5 yards per carry on their 67 touches. That’s not up to par for Army’s second ranked rush offense.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the gridiron, Jeffrey Wilson had the best rushing game of anybody. The pushed the ball into the end zone three times—one of two three touchdown games this season—and added 160 yards.
In all, it was a very non-Army game as the defense struggled a bit as a result of the picks and troubles of the offense which should have done much better given the matchup against a poor front seven.
Army will look for revenge while North Texas rides into this bowl game knowing they can beat the Black Knights having done so already.
Matchup to Watch
Army rushed for fewer yards than average last time they faced the Mean Green and it’ll be up to the North Texas defense to have similar success here in round two against the prolific Army rushing attack in order to allow them to be in position for the upset.
The Black Knights are second in college football with 327.7 rushing yards per game, the Mean Green are No. 105 against the run.
Meanwhile, Bradshaw has attempted just 88 passes all year, 21 came against North Texas last time out. Don’t look for a similar game plan this time.
Free ATS Pick
Yes, North Texas beat Army earlier this year. And, yes, the Mean Green handled the Army triple-option rushing attack well in that game, but the stats point to that being an anomaly.
Don’t look for four more interceptions by Bradshaw who likely doesn’t even get the chance to throw the ball enough to allow North Texas to replicate those turnovers.
In the meantime, Army runs and runs and runs some more, tearing apart the North Texas front seven that gave up 301 yards and four touchdowns to Texas-El Paso’s Aaron Jones in their last game.
Look for the Army to get an early lead with Andy Davidson and Bradshaw each doing well carrying the ball. Defensively, that allows Army to play its game. With all the turnovers last time, they were at a disadvantage, but if the offense can perform, the defense ranked No. 4 in the nation in fewest total yards per game should keep North Texas from getting back into the game.
Army’s offense rolls and the Black Knights get a large win, covering the spread.
College Football Odds: Army 33, North Texas 19
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