This will be the first meeting between the Minnesota Golden Gophers and the Washington State Cougars since 1988 as they meet in the Holiday Bowl. Each team at 8-4 found themselves thriving against lesser competition by a bit non-descript against the big boys, Washington State does at least have a top-25 win while Minnesota would need to beat the No. 23 Cougars to capture one.
This matchup in the Holiday Bowl will take place on Tuesday, December 27, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Qualcomm Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Minnesota +7
Washington State -7
Over/Under 60.5
Odds Analysis
The Cougars are growing favorites in Tuesday’s showdown. The spread opened at five and a half. It’s grown a point and a half while the total has ticked up half a point as well.
Washington State is favored by a touchdown despite back-to-back losses SU and ATS when they were pups by six points in each of their final two games before bowl season kicked off. Over a larger sample size, the Cougars are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
Minnesota hasn’t exactly thrived against the spread this year, but it has only recorded a loss ATS once in its last five games, though the actual 2-1-2 record is a bit less impressive than the preceding phrase may indicate.
Player to Watch
It’s Luke Falk. It seems obvious enough, but how can the player to watch not be a QB with plenty of draft hype and a 71-percent completion percentage. Falk has led the Cougars to the second most prolific pass offense this season, averaging 370.8 yards per game in the air.
Granted, Falk has some good receivers at his disposal. Gabe Marks and Tavares Martin Jr. have combined for 20 touchdowns and have 146 receptions amongst them for 1,575 yards. There’s depth in the receiver pool, too, with eight others have notched at least 22 receptions.
The accuracy with which Falk throws the ball sets him apart. He’s tossed 37 touchdowns with 10 interceptions for a very strong ratio. Prior to a rough game against a Washington team in the College Football Playoffs, he had three touchdowns or more in five straight games, tossing 20 touchdowns to just two interceptions in those five games.
Minnesota’s defense, meanwhile, is pretty strong, but much better against the run than against the pass. The Golden Gophers can be beaten in the air and the Cougars are in position to do that with Falk.
Key Stat
Time of possession is the key stat, at least for the Golden Gophers. In what will be a high scoring game for Washington State given the balanced offense behind Falk, Minnesota needs to do what it can on offense to give its a defense a chance to get off, and stay off, the field.
Winning the time of possession battle means two things for Minnesota: the ability to play good clean football, avoiding turnovers; and the ability to keep the chains moving on the ground.
Washington State’s defense is weak in the secondary. They’re ranked No. 121 in passing yards, giving up 283.6 per game. Mitch Leidner could exploit that, but he’s got just seven touchdowns this year and has been picked off 12 times. He had a better season a year ago, but still gave up 11 picks.
Given that, Minnesota will need to put the ball in the air against Washington State, but they cannot lean on the air attack. Instead, they’ll look for Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks to have strong performances, moving the ball consistently and keeping the clock ticking.
Washington State’s defense has been troublesome for the Cougars against some of the better teams in the sport and that comes apparent in their record against bowl-eligible teams. A win in this contest would be just their third all year against a bowl team.
Free ATS Pick
Washington State ended the season on a very sour note. That’s much the same way the Cougars started, but in the middle this was a good team and all throughout this was an offense that could score.
Minnesota’s offense may be able to slow the Cougars’ rushing game, but look for Falk to air it out and find Marks for a couple early scores. As for the Gophers’ plan to win time of possession, that may play early, but the Washington State rush defense is strong enough against the run to push Minnesota back into the air where Leidner is vulnerable, even against the Cougars’ secondary.
College Football Odds: Washington State 38, Minnesota 29
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