At the outset of the season, both the USC Trojans and Wisconsin Badgers had hopes of playing against a team from the Big Ten or Pac-12 respectively in a bowl game in Southern California. Of course, the Holiday Bowl isn't the Rose Bowl, but this isn't a bad consolation prize for two teams which had some really good moments down the stretch of the year.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
USC Trojans -3
Wisconsin Badgers +3
Over/Under 51
ODDS ANALYSIS
There's going to be a lot of running the football and rock solid defense in this game, so it shouldn't be surprising that we've seen the total drop just a bit. The number has come down from 51 at its open to 49.5.
The side in this game has held relatively firm, though after opening at -3 and -115 vig, the Trojans have taken the leap up to -3.5.
KEY MISMATCH
When you go back and look at the success the Badgers have had, you'll notice all of the same trends. Opponents struggle to run the ball and quarterbacks are often forced into bad and quick decisions.
Wisconsin's defensive line is outstanding. The unit has held teams to just 3.2 yards per carry and has averaged 2.2 sacks per game. The DL is also a big part of the reason why the Badgers are allowing opponents to complete 48.5 percent of their passes and post a 95.0 quarterback rating as well.
The USC offensive line is full of studs, but it isn't the deepest unit in the world. Problems could certainly be had if the Trojans don't take the prep for the Holiday Bowl seriously.
KEY STAT
4.2 - The number of yards per carry Dare Ogunbowale and Taiwan Deal have averaged this year for the Badgers. Corey Clement came into this season averaging over seven yards per carry in his career, and he was supposed to be the next great Wisconsin back. Instead, he's had legal problems which have kept him off the field for most of the season.
Ogunbowale and Deal just haven't had the same impact in the power running game.
BETTING ANGLE
The Trojans have had a good history in bowl games of late, going 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips. The signing of Clay Helton as the full-time coach after a relatively successful stint as the interim man in charge could also have a positive impact on the team in the bowl preparation as well.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Wisconsin is always ready to go to war in bowl games, but we can't see it catching USC napping the same way that it did against Auburn last year. Go back and look at the wins for the Badgers, and you surely won't be impressed. Only a win at Nebraska and perhaps one at Minnesota were even remotely impressive.
Even with Tre Madden out of this bowl game, Justin Davis and Ronald Jones should still be able to carry the rock and take the pressure off of Cody Kessler, who is largely going to be the best quarterback the Badgers have run up against this year.
Wisconsin is going to be outclassed in this game, and as long as USC brings its A-game, it should escape San Diego with a victory.
USC 24, Wisconsin 20
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