The Fighting Illini have yet to face much of a challenge this season, going up against lesser opponents at home over the season’s first two weeks.
Illinois will get its first real test in Week 2 when they head to Chapel Hill to take on the 1-1 North Carolina Tar Heels.
ODDS
The spread opened with the Tar Heels favored by 6.5-points, but that’s since expanded to an 8-point spread.
North Carolina came back strong in its Week 2 game against North Carolina A&T after its devastating first week loss to South Carolina. While the Tar Heels got the win ATS, they’re still just 1-6 ATS in their last seven September games. They’re also just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games out of conference.
Of course, the Fighting Illini have had their own issues ATS, particularly on the road, where they’ve lost 13 of 16 against the closing number.
KEY MISMATCH
The Tar Heels hung 53-points on the North Carolina A&T Aggies this past week with quarterback Marquise Williams completing 75% of his passes for 211 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Back in Week 1, Williams completed 61.3% of his passes against South Carolina for 232 yards, but in the process, he also allowed three interceptions. He avoided an interception against the Aggies.
While the offense played big on Saturday, the team’s 13 point performance against the Gamecocks causes some concern.
Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini have dominated defensively so far, allowing just three total points through two weeks of gridiron play.
Neither Western Illinois nor Kent State are particularly stout opponents, but 193 yards per game, and perhaps more impressively 2.9 yards per play is still quite inspiring.
KEY STAT
.500 – The three interceptions in Week 1 aside, the Tar Heels offense has plenty of positives going for them as they host the Fighting Illini, including this solid third down conversion percentage.
Much of this came against the Aggies, but the Tar Heels have converted 13 of 26 first downs through the first two weeks.
While Illinois has allowed just four third down conversions in 33 chances this year, its percentage will go up on Saturday. Of course, on the other side, the Fighting Illini have converted just 12 of 31 first downs on offense even against easier opposition.
BETTING ANGLE
Illinois will finally get its test after cruising through a couple easy matchups. Wes Lunt has been very good under center for the team and the group looks to be rather solid overall, but the numbers are vastly skewed.
The Tar Heels are a bit more battle tested after their Week 1 matchup with South Carolina. Although that game resulted in a loss, they played tough, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Home field advantage goes a long ways in this one and I have the Tar Heels winning SU, but with a spread now over a touchdown, this becomes much more of a tossup on the betting line.
While I have yet to see Illinois challenged, what I have seen from them has been complete dominance of the teams it’s supposed to dominate. The Tar Heels, meanwhile, allowed a pair of touchdowns to a North Carolina A&T team and, on the other side of the ball, gave up three interceptions when pushed against a better team like South Carolina.
I have the Tar Heels with the win at home, but because of the questions, falling against the spread.
North Carolina 24, Illinois 20
BookMaker sent out the college football spread for this game at North Carolina -6.5. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, total and spread. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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