Derek Mason’s Vanderbilt Commodores are rolling and set for their first bowl game under his lead as they will get to play the North Carolina Wolfpack in the Camping World Independence Bowl just after Christmas. The Commodores don’t look like a team that should be in a bowl game on paper, but a good running back and an elite linebacker make a huge difference as this team’s managed to grind out enough wins to get the bid. On the opposite side, their opponents, should arguably be better than their record on paper.
Watch this Camping World Independence Bowl matchup live on Monday, December 26, 2016, at 5 p.m. ET at Independence Field.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Vanderbilt +4.5
North Carolina State -4.5
Over/Under 44
Odds Analysis
The spread has grown in Wolfpack’s favor since opening. With a low scoring affair likely, the difference in a few points could be a major swing. Given that, look for a low scoring game.
Both NC State and Vandy will come into play at 6-6, but both the Wolfpack and the Commodores are also boasting better ATS marks than they each have SU with North Carolina State edging out Vanderbilt at 8-4 ATS.
The Wolfpack has also covered the spread in three of their last four games, but Vanderbilt can match that.
Player to Watch
Ralph Webb is the centerpiece of the Vanderbilt offense so he’s important to watch while Matt Dayes is the running game for the Wolfpack.
Webb, however, is going up against a rush defense amongst the elite in college football at least based on rushing yards allowed per game. Meanwhile, Dayes has had games where he’s been basically shutout. Boston College and Louisville both held him down in losses.
With that, the true player to watch is likely on the defensive end of the field in the person of Zach Cunningham.
Cunningham has 16.5 tackles for a loss and has been a beast in the opposing backfields all season long, disrupting even some of the best backfield units.
He’ll be tasked with keeping pressure on Ryan Finley. The NC State QB has pretty good numbers, but he’s been prone to big mistakes that have cost games. If Cunningham can get pressure on Finley, he could cave and make some costly mistakes.
One of the keys to the game for the Wolfpack is to get him and Dayes to play clean football and allow the offense to continually move the chains. The pieces are there, but there’s always something and the external force of a player like Cunningham could be just what the doctors ordered—or the defense ordered—for Vanderbilt.
Last Game
Both teams used an upset win over in-state rivals to become bowl eligible and both are flying high, looking to build off this momentum.
For Vanderbilt, that win came against a Tennessee team favored by seven points at home. The Commodores offense exploded against a ranked Volunteers team for 45-points. Webb, of course, had another strong game with 114 yards and a couple scores. He’s not scored five touchdowns in his last two games.
Perhaps more importantly, however, Kyle Shurmur played very well with 416 yards and a couple touchdowns.
Flipping to the NC State game against the Tar Heels, the Wolfpack won more on defense though the offense did do well moving the ball and controlling the clock in the 28-21 win.
Free ATS Pick
Sure, both these teams beat an instate rival to get here, but there’s no doubt the Vandy win over Tennessee was the bigger upset and thus the bigger statement, too.
In general, the numbers seem to point towards the Wolfpack, but this is a team that should be better than .500 based on the numbers, yet they cannot seem to find a way to close out wins consistently. Some of that is the errors that’ve short circuited what should be a very strong offense. In any case, it cannot be ignored.
In the end, take the NFL level linebacker in Cunningham to disrupt Finley, causing some key errors to swing the game in Vanderbilt’s favor in what will be a close affair.
On the ground, meanwhile, look for Webb to slightly out gain an underrated Dayes to allow the Commodores the offense needed for the win. Take Vanderbilt to win straight out and thus cover the spread, but watch a bit more before playing on the total.
College Football Odds: Vanderbilt 26, North Carolina State 24
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