This in-state Big Ten vs. Big 12 battle has been closely contested the past four years with three games decided by exactly three points and the other a six-point Iowa win. The Iowa State Cyclones have won three of the last four meetings winning each game as an underdog, but Iowa is the stronger team again this season.
ODDS
The Iowa Hawkeyes opened as a 4.5-point favorite and were quickly bet down to -3.5 over the home-dogged Iowa State Cyclones. The total was also bet down from 54 to 52.
KEY MISMATCH
Iowa’s offensive and defensive line against Iowa State’s offensive line and defensive front:
The Cyclones allowed 246 rushing yards per game and 5.7 yards per rush last season which was their worst rushing defense since 1997. While they will be improved this season, it appears they are still one of the worst teams in the Big 12 along the line of scrimmage on both offense and defense.
Iowa State allowed 126 rushing yards last week to FCS rep Northern Iowa while rushing for just 77 yards at 2.4 yards per rush themselves. They are still missing returning offensive guard Daniel Burton, who is recovering from knee surgery and is questionable for Saturday’s Cy-Hawk rivalry.
A misleading Iowa State victory of 31-7 in which both teams had approximately 300 total yards will now turn into an Iowa advantage at the point of attack in a game we see Iowa out-rushing Iowa State by at least 120 yards in victory.
Iowa rushed for 210 yards in last week’s win over Illinois State while building a 31-0 fourth quarter lead over one of the top-5 FCS teams in the country.
KEY STAT
Iowa is a team that lives in the margins and relies on the little things going right. Yet, the Hawkeyes were so unlucky last season in recovering just six of their 21 fumbles while only recovering three of their opponents 11.
15 - Iowa State made just 15 first downs against Northern Iowa while averaging 5.1 yards per play but just 2.4 yards per rush. UNI ran a total of 75 plays to 61 for the Cyclones. Similar numbers against Iowa will result in a one-sided loss and the Hawkeye’s are clearly a stronger team.
BETTING ANGLE
The Hawkeyes are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games while the Cyclones are 1-4-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
The ‘under’ is 6-0 in the Hawkeye’s last six games in September and 5-0 in the Cyclones last five games overall. The ‘under’ is also 8-2 in the last 10 games in this series with the road team going 5-2 ATS in the last seven.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Cyclones went 0-9 in Big 12 play last season while being out-gained by 190 yards per game. One of their two overall season wins was a last-second upset at Iowa, 20-17 as a 13-point underdog.
ISU trailed 14-3 at halftime with negative offensive yardage. While they held Iowa to a season-low 275 yards, the Cyclones defense was dreadful allowing 529 yards and 39 points per game last season.
Iowa State’s defense spent most of its first game against Northern Iowa playing in a three-man front. It's ascheme the Cyclones will likely showcase most of the season and it resulted in six sacks against Northern Iowa after registering just 15 sacks all of last season.
However, Iowa State is expected to use a four-man front for much of Saturday’s contest to better contain Iowa’s run-heavy offense which includes mobile quarterback CJ Beathard, who ran eight times for two touchdowns last week.
Many expect another close contest since the series has been tightly-contested each of the past four seasons. However, two years ago at this site Iowa led 27-7 late before Iowa State managed a pair of touchdowns. Iowa is more experienced and stronger, and the Hawkeyes will bring plenty of focus for this rivalry game especially following last year’s second-half collapse against the Cyclones.
Iowa 27, Iowa State 13
BookMaker opened the spread for this game at -4.5 in favor of the Iowa State Hawkeyes. The NCAA lines total surfaced at 54. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone or tablet with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the Iowa Hawkeyes and Iowa State Cyclones will take place Saturday, September 12, 2015, at 4:45 p.m. ET at Jack Trice Stadium. The contest will be broadcast live on FOX.
