Tom Herman is out for the Houston Cougars as the team will head to the Las Vegas Bowl against the San Diego State Aztecs under Todd Orlando instead. While Herman may be gone, Greg Ward Jr. is still here and we’ll be in for a fun one with him and Donnel Pumphrey leading their respective offenses. Both teams boast strong defensive units, too, so we should be in for a real treat.
This matchup in the Las Vegas Bowl will take place on Saturday, December 17, 2016, at 12:30 p.m. ET at Sam Boyd Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
Topping out as the No. 6 team in the nation early on, Houston has gone into a nose dive heading into their bowl bid and that’s not a great piece of news.
Notable to bettors, this Cougars’ team has at least been reliable in one facet: they’ve been unable to cover the spread. Since the calendar flipped to October, the Cougars are just 1-6 ATS, their sole ATS victory in that span coming at home.
San Diego State comes into Saturday with a few questions of its own after losing to Wyoming and Colorado State before finally topping Wyoming in the in the Mountain West conference title game. Even then, however, the Aztecs didn’t cover the spread.
San Diego State has now failed to cover the spread in three straight games so with that and Houston’s streak, something has to give. History would point to the Aztecs who are at least 10-4 ATS overall.
Player to Watch
We know Donnel Pumphrey will run wild for the Aztecs. We know that Greg Ward Jr. needs to have a massive game and put the Cougars on his shoulders for them come out victorious, but each of those players having solid performances are more of a given. The real key to this game will be Duke Catalon.
Sure, Ward leads the way in rushing for Houston, but he needs somebody else to help shoulder the load. That somebody is Catalon who has 510 yards to rank second for Houston.
The San Diego State defense is very strong against both the run and the pass. In fact, they’re allowing 320.8 total yards per game, the 12th fewest in college football.
Houston, meanwhile, ranks No. 15 in passing yards per game, but No. 87 in rushing yards. They’ll need to show more on the ground win.
Catalon notched 60 yards on 13 carries in the Memphis loss and now has a touchdown in three of his last four games.
Coaching Angle
Herman has been instrumental to Houston’s recent success and losing him to Texas prior this bowl game could have a significant impact.
Sure, this team is still one with great player personnel and with Ward, you still have a chance, but Houston looked like a team distracted in their loss to Memphis that ultimately marked the end of Herman’s tenure in Houston.
In that game, they lost by four, 48-44, despite entering as six-point road favorites. The defense was lost in the game and while Ward played well and connected with Linell Bonner 17 times for 235 yards, there were still mistakes on offense, too.
Beyond the Memphis game, this is a team that’s lost three of its last seven games following a 5-0 start.
Free ATS Pick
Look for big games from Ward and Pumphrey as we get a nice, close, high-scoring game to keep us entertained—and sweating bullets on Saturday afternoon.
Ultimately, I have little faith that the departure of Herman will have a positive-weight-lifting effect on the Cougars. Meanwhile, I am concerned about Houston’s struggles, more so than I am about the Aztecs who seemed to start to get things back together with their Mountain West Conference title victory over Wyoming.
Between Pumphrey and another strong member of the backfield in Rashaad Penny there will be plenty of yards on the ground for the Aztecs and while Ward can do it all, he’s stuck contending with a San Diego State defense ranked No. 19 in points allowed.
In the end, look for San Diego State to capture its first win against Houston in its third attempt as these teams play head-to-head for the first time since 1973.
College Football Odds: San Diego State 33, Houston 30
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