Four years ago, the Arkansas Razorbacks put aside the Kansas State Wildcats 29-16 in the Cotton Bowl. Now, almost four years to the date, these two will be back at it for the second time in recent history, this time playing in the significantly less notable Liberty Bowl.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kansas State Wildcats +11
Arkansas Razorbacks -11
Over/Under 59.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
It's been all one-way traffic here in the Liberty Bowl for betting purposes. The Razorbacks opened up as the second-biggest favorites of the bowl season at -11, and they've already steamed up to -13 and could continue to go up by the time this one kicks off.
Simultaneously, the total has come down as well. After opening at 59.5, the number has dropped to 55, moving K-State's insinuated team total from 24 based on the opening number to just 21 now.
KEY MISMATCH
Arkansas' passing game has gotten a lot more vertical over the course of the last couple years. Brandon Allen is averaging a whopping 14 yards per completion this season and 9.1 yards per attempt.
The real problem K-State is going to have is defending against all of the options which the Hogs have on the field. The Wildcats are particularly thin at corner, and when Arkansas spreads out with four wide receivers and Alex Collins in the backfield, they're going to be hard-pressed to cover all of the options. Arkansas had five receivers with at least 22 catches and at least 308 receiving yards this year, and though no one is going to go off for 200 yards or anything of the sorts in this game, the possibility of five men having at least 30 or 40 yards is certainly there.
KEY STAT
1 – The number of games in their last 10 in which the Wildcats outgained their opponents. That one game came against Kansas, arguably the worst team in college football this year, and even that was only by 48 yards. That said, KSU has managed to score at least 38 three times in its last four games, but it's tough to see how that could happen again here against Arkansas' SEC defense.
BETTING ANGLE
The under has cashed in seven straight bowl games for Arkansas. Bret Bielema has been an under guy himself in bowl games from his days back with Wisconsin, and that's likely why this total has done nothing but dip over the course of the entire bowl season.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
We see strange things happen in bowl games all the time, but the ones later in the season tend to have more normal results. Arkansas is clearly the better of these two teams, and it is destined to take advantage of a very vanilla Kansas State offense. The Wildcats are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven bowl games, and though they are well-coached by Bill Snider, they just don't have the horses to be able to hang around in this one.
Don't be surprised if the Razorbacks end up mustering 500 yards of offense in this game. The K-State defense might be able to do enough to still hold Arkansas in the 30s, but even still, that's probably enough to ultimately cover the spread in the Liberty Bowl.
Arkansas 33, Kansas State 16
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