Both the Navy Midshipmen and Louisiana Tech Bulldogs found themselves in their respective conference title games and both lost. One will rebound on Friday while the other goes into the offseason with a sour taste in their mouth. As to which will get the victory, that’s up in the air as this should be a very tight game, making the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, one of the better pre-Christmas matchups.
This matchup in the Armed Forces Bowl will take place on Friday, December 23, 2016, at 4:30 p.m. ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Louisiana Tech
Navy
Odds Analysis
Bookmaker hasn’t released the odds, yet, but look for the Midshipmen to open as slight favorites over Louisiana Tech. If that’s the case, it plays well for the Bulldogs. They’ve failed to cover their last two games—both SU losses as well—but they’re 3-1 ATS in their four games as underdogs.
Louisiana Tech did have a stretch of six straight games covering the spread this year, but that was snapped with the back-to-back losses to close out the year, including the loss against Western Kentucky in the conference title game.
Navy also lost and failed to cover their final game, falling to Temple. Prior to that, though, they did cover back-to-back games.
Player to Watch
We know what to expect from the Navy offense: an option offense with a plethora of options to carry the ball and only a handful of passing plays per game.
For the bulk of the season the offense pivoted around Will Worth under center who also still leads the team with his 1,196 rushing yards and 25 rushing touchdowns.
The offense was built around Worth who ran it well and racked up the numbers as a result. Now, it’s up to Zach Abey. Abey got a chance to shoulder most of the load against Temple and that did not go over too well as he was picked twice. He did rush 14 times for 70 yards and a score.
Navy should be heavy favorites in this game, but with Worth sidelined Louisiana Tech may take the edge on offense. It’s up to Abey to keep this dominant rushing game going in Worth’s absence.
This Navy offense is all about a clean game. They don’t give up the ball often and they have options available for the quarterback to make snap decisions. That’s a lot of responsibility for someone who hasn’t seen much time under center in this offense outside of practice. One positive, however, is he should have plenty of that practice before this bowl game, but just how well will that translate onto the gridiron. He showed some tools in the loss to the Owls. He’ll have a chance to get some live action against Army. That may be our best gauge.
Key Stat
Offense is the name of the game. Navy will run the ball well even without Worth and Louisiana Tech will air out the ball, scoring early and often.
Defensively, these two teams are both just bad. The Bulldogs are allowing 32.7 PPG and Navy is giving up 30.4.
Both teams have been bad at stopping the opposition in the red zone. Louisiana Tech ranks No. 109 in red zone defense while Navy ranks No. 118. Each are giving up points nearly 90-percent of the time when the opposing team gets into the red zone.
Free ATS Pick
Many experts are still likely to roll with Navy to win the Armed Forces Bowl. That would be the better storyline given the new QB and, well, the bowl that these teams are playing, but the Midshipmen are asking a lot of Abey and I’m not so confident he’s going to be able to just step into Worth’s shoes without much impact.
Worth made this offense roll—or at least fit the system perfectly. They’re now going to have to adapt on the fly and that’s never an optimal situation heading into bowl season.
Louisiana Tech can score with the best of them and with neither team all that good defensively, I’m banking on the offense that’s more intact, particularly when they’ll likely be handed a couple of points as well.
College Football Odds: Louisiana Tech 43, Navy 42
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