Louisville certainly didn’t earn any style points for the way in which it beat Boston College last week, but the Cardinals don’t care as they work their way back toward bowl eligibility. Wake Forest, on the other hand, is just looking for points. Preferably the ones on the scoreboard as the Demon Deacons rank near the bottom of the FBS in points per game.
ODDS
Louisville opened as an 11-point favorite with the total at 43. The Cards have been a good bet when on the road going 7-2 ATS in their last nine roadies, including a 2-1 ATS record this season. The under is 11-5 in Wake’s last 16 home games. The line was wagered to -12 while the total fell to 42.
KEY MISMATCH
When a coach says “we’re not very good on offense” he’s likely baiting his next opponent. In the case of Louisville’s Bobby Petrino, he’s telling the truth. The road to redemption after a brutal start continues for the Cardinals with a third win in four games, a 17-14 snoozer over Boston College. The win certainly gets Louisville closer to bowl eligibility, but there wasn’t much else to get excited about. By this point the Cards are what they are. They probably won’t burn out the bulbs on any scoreboard, but their defense looks capable enough to handle what’s going to be asked of it in the coming weeks. And next is a Wake Forest team that has more trouble than Louisville moving the football. The Demon Deacons have scored more than 20 points one time in seven games against FBS teams and averages just 18.6 per game to rank 119th out of 128 FBS schools. Take away the 41 points scored against FCS Elon, and Wake scores slightly better than 15 points per game.
KEY STAT
18.6 – Wake Forest’s points per game average. The Demon Deacons rank near the bottom of the FBS in scoring and the number was inflated with a 41-point game against FCS Elon College. Louisville has surrendered 30 points in its three victories and allows 22.3 points per game overall.
BETTING ANGLE
Both Louisville and Wake Forest are good defensive teams and absolutely horrible on offense. That makes this a likely low scoring affair. While the Demon Deacons have been torched the last two weeks, allowing 85 combined points in losses to North Carolina and North Carolina State, they did limit Florida State to 24 points and shutout out Boston College. In their three wins, Wake Forest surrendered a total of 17 points. Those games were against Elon, Army and BC, but they did clamp down. Wake ranks 35th nationally in total yards allowed and 46th in scoring defense, so it has done some things right. However, their 119th ranked scoring offense has prevented more wins. With their next three games against ranked opponents, expect the Demon Deacons to give a valiant effort in what looks like the only one of the remaining four games they have a legitimate shot at winning. Louisville’s offense isn’t efficient enough to warrant being this highly favored on the road and the under has plenty of value.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Two teams that are statistically much better defensively than scoring points on offense gives the under some value. Playing against what had been the top-ranked defense in the FBS, Louisville managed to get 365 yards in last week’s win over Boston College. It was the second-most of any BC opponent this season. But the Cards continued with the self-inflicted wounds, giving up seven sacks among 16 total BC tackles for loss, turning the ball over four times, and committing six false-start penalties. The Cards dominated the game, holding BC to just 79 total yards after a season-worst performance at Florida State, and Petrino wants his offense to respond this week the way his defense did last week. Lamar Jackson should be able to carve up Wake’s fragile defense much the same way North Carolina’s Marquise Williams did two weeks ago. The quarterbacks play a similar style of game and UNC gave Wake fits in a 50-14 win on Oct. 17. The Cards will continue their push to bowl eligibility, but laying double-digits on the road makes Louisville a risky bet.
Louisville 27, Wake Forest 17
The college football odds for this game were first available at BookMaker Sportsbook. The Cardinals were pegged as 11-point chalk while the total opened at 43. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
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