All seven SEC West teams cracked the AP Top-25 Poll this week and LSU is the only one without a win. The No. 14 Tigers have a chance to drop No. 25 Mississippi State out of the rankings and avenge last season’s home loss when the teams meet on Saturday.
LSU had its opener canceled after lightning settled over Baton Rouge last week and will pull the curtain on its 2015 campaign against a Bulldogs team it lost to as a 7-point favorite.
ODDS
Early money was all over LSU when the line opened at -2, forcing the spread to go as high as -4.5. The line has settled at its current -3.5. The Tigers will be looking for payback and you know they’ll key on quarterback Dak Prescott, who destroyed them last year. The total opened at 48 and spiked to 49.5. The teams easily cashed the over last year and have played above the over/under line eight times in the last 10 meetings.
KEY MISMATCH
Mississippi State’s SEC opening win at LSU put the Bulldogs and Prescott on the national map last season. The Heisman hopeful came out firing in the season opener, rushing for a game-high 72 yards while completing 22 of 38 passes with two touchdowns and 237 yards. Prescott can improve his Heisman chances with another big outing against the Tigers, who couldn’t stop him last year. Prescott passed for two touchdowns and ran 56 yards for another score to help MSU end a 14-game skid in the series. He accounted for 373 yards – 268 passing, 105 rushing – and the Bulldogs finished with 570 total yards. There is some mystery surrounding LSU’s defense with the hiring of new coordinator Kevin Steele. While the scheme hasn’t changed much, Steele will certainly put his mark on the unit.
KEY STAT
570 – Total yards gained by Mississippi in last season’s upset win at LSU. Prescott had his hands all over this win, passing for 268 yards and two touchdowns and running for 105. The Bulldogs gained 302 yards on the ground while compiling the most yards against LSU since the 2001 season.
BETTING ANGLE
There is no way to evaluate how new LSU quarterback Brandon Harris has developed since his erratic freshman season, or how the Tigers offense has evolved over the summer. No one has seen Harris throw more than two passes in a game this season because the 14th-ranked Tigers played less than five minutes before lightning canceled their game last week. LSU will have a week to watch film of No. 25 Mississippi State’s season opening win over Southern Mississippi, to study their tendencies and break down their sets. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, have nothing. LSU coach Les Miles and his staff is missing out on game tape it would have used to evaluate his own players, but he says the benefit of not playing is that his team will be relatively healthy.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
We don’t really know what this year’s edition of LSU looks like after having its opener cancelled. Harris won the quarterback competition with Anthony Jennings and is the more polished passer, which will be huge against a Bulldogs secondary that allowed 300 yards through the air last week. The Tigers will also feature stud running back Leonard Fournette, who missed out on a bunch of yards against FCS McNeese State last week. LSU must contain Prescott, who torched them last year, and is the focal point of MSU’s offense. The Tigers do a better job in that area and come away with the win.
LSU 30, Mississippi State 24
BookMaker sent out the college football spread for this game at LSU -2 with a total of 48. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, total and spread. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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